Versant Media Group, Inc. (VSNT)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$33.98+3.95%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VSNT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -58.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -3.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VSNT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-14
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 14, 2026, Versant Media Group, Inc (“Versant”) issued a press release reporting its financial results and the results of its operations for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: Subscriber losses drove lower linear revenue in both Q1 and Q2. A steeper fall would add pressure to sales.
Worry ifQ3 linear distribution revenue falls more than 6.3% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 linear distribution revenue falls less than 6.3% year over year, or grows.
Why it matters: The five-year deal adds over 300 live matches each year. Viewers and free streams will test its reach.
Supportive ifVersant reports that at least 30 Bundesliga matches air on USA each year, with the rest streaming free on Fandango.
Worry ifVersant reports fewer than 30 premium matches on USA, or the free Fandango streams do not launch.
Why it matters: Q2 earnings fell from a year ago, though lower costs helped. The next report will show if those savings continue.
Watch forQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is at least $624 million, while Versant keeps its 2026 range of $1.9 billion to $2.05 billion.
Also watch forQ3 Adjusted EBITDA is below $624 million, or Versant cuts its 2026 range.
Why it matters: Fandango and GolfNow drove growth in Platforms. More growth would support Versant's digital plan.
Supportive ifQ3 Platforms revenue, excluding SportsEngine, grows at least 9.3% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 Platforms revenue, excluding SportsEngine, is flat or falls year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$136 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $373 loss on $10,000 · 3.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,993 loss on $10,000 · 39.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Versant paid about $530 million for Full Swing. Closing on time would move the deal into integration and growth work.
Supportive ifVersant reports that the Full Swing deal closed by the end of 2026.
Worry ifThe deal does not close by year-end, or Versant reports a delay or termination.
Why it matters: Versant raised its 2026 revenue range after Q2. Q3 results will show if that growth plan is on track.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $1.64 billion, and management keeps its 2026 range of $6.2 billion to $6.45 billion.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $1.64 billion, or management cuts its 2026 revenue range.