Vestis (VSTS)
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.26+5.74%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsRental & Leasing ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VSTS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 11.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VSTS — CFO transition
Dated 2026-06-15
Interim Chief Financial Officer — Adam K. Bowen: Amended employment documents and compensation arrangements for Adam K. Bowen as Interim Chief Financial Officer.
Why it matters: Flat or falling revenue growth may show problems in the company's strategy.
Worry ifRevenue growth in Q4 2026 reported as flat or down compared to the previous year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth in Q4 2026 reported as up year over year.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good financial health. It helps pay off debt. Vestis is running its operations well.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $58 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is under $58 million. This raises worries about how well the company is running.
Why it matters: A higher Adjusted EBITDA margin shows better cost control. This helps run the business.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 12.5% in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 11% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Progress on this plan is crucial for achieving $75 million in annual cost savings by the end of fiscal 2026.
Supportive ifThe company says the benefits from the Plan will increase to $50 million this year.
Worry ifThe company says the benefits from the Plan will stay the same or drop below $40 million.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$142 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $492 loss on $10,000 · 4.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,648 loss on $10,000 · 26.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: If industrial sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Vestis. It indicates a healthier market.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is getting close to above 8%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is under 8%. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: A drop in Free Cash Flow would raise concerns about cash generation and capital allocation.
Worry ifFree Cash Flow in Q4 2026 reported below $40 million.
Less concerning ifFree Cash Flow in Q4 2026 reported above $45 million.
Why it matters: A positive net income would mean Vestis is getting closer to lasting profit.
Supportive ifNet income for Q3 is reported as positive.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 remains negative.
Why it matters: Hitting this savings target shows Vestis's transformation is working. It helps long-term profit.
Supportive ifThe company confirms $50 million in annual cost savings from the transformation plan.
Worry ifThe company reports savings of less than $50 million from the transformation plan.
Why it matters: Sustained net income growth shows the company is improving its financial health. Investors look for consistent performance.
Supportive ifQ2 net income reported above $2.60M, continuing the positive trend.
Worry ifQ2 net income falls below $2.60M, breaking the recent improvement trend.
Why it matters: Better Adjusted EBITDA shows that Vestis's transformation plan is working. It means more profit and efficiency.
Supportive ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA increases by at least 5% compared to Q2's $74.5 million.
Worry ifQ3 Adjusted EBITDA does not get better or goes down compared to Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in Free Cash Flow guidance show how well management can make cash and run the business.
Supportive ifManagement raises fiscal 2026 Free Cash Flow guidance to over $170 million.
Worry ifManagement lowers fiscal 2026 Free Cash Flow guidance to under $160 million.
Why it matters: Maintaining the dividend shows the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders. A cut could signal trouble.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.035 for the next quarter.
Worry ifThe dividend per share is down to $0.035. This shows possible financial trouble.
Why it matters: If revenue drops stay low, it shows good pricing and cost control. This shows strength in a tough market.
Supportive ifFY 2026 revenue decline is less than or equal to 2% compared to FY 2025.
Worry ifFY 2026 revenue drop is over 2%. This points to bigger problems in sales or market position.
Why it matters: Stable or growing revenue means the strategic plan is working.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue growth is flat or better compared to last year.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue declines more than 2% compared to the previous year.
Why it matters: This figure will show if Vestis is on track with its profitability goals. Meeting this target would confirm strong execution of the business transformation plan.
Supportive ifIn Fiscal Q4 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was at least $84 million.
Worry ifIn Fiscal Q4 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was below $84 million.
Why it matters: Growth in Revenue Per Pound shows good pricing and better operations. This is important for profit.
Supportive ifRevenue Per Pound increases year over year in Q4 2026.
Worry ifRevenue Per Pound declines year over year in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow indicates good financial health and supports debt repayment. This will show if Vestis can sustain its operational improvements.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported at or above $64 million in Q4 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $64 million in Q4 2026.