Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
vTv Therapeutics Inc (VTVT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.03+2.04%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VTVT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital raising via ATM program | It aims to raise capital through its ATM program. | Intact | ATM program not expanded or capital raising fails in 2026 | ATM expanded to full amount May 2026 prospectus supplement increased ATM shares to full program amount. FDA orphan status supports development. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk clinical-stage healthcare company, not a proven durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent financial performance strong relative to its industry, but earnings quality is fragile and confidence in the evidence is medium.
The evidence snapshot does not provide valuation or market-expectations data, so whether VTVT looks cheap or expensive versus peers is unclear. The main expectations hinge on advancing the Phase 3 CATT1 trial and reaching its anticipated data readout without needing more funding.
Near term, earnings may remain erratic: VTVT had an earnings miss in August after a beat in May, and the snapshot puts the chance of another miss at 50%. Management says enrollment is progressing and $86.6 million in cash as of the second quarter should fund operations through the anticipated data readout, though cash has declined from the prior quarter.
The multi-year thesis hinges on completing CATT1 enrollment and delivering the anticipated data readout, while maintaining enough cash to reach that point. A guidance cut or further weakening in jobs could add pressure, while continued strength from healthcare sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next one to three years, VTVT remains a high-risk thesis centered on Phase 3 execution and clinical evidence, with near-term earnings uncertainty and cash use worth watching. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income rose from -$7.1M to $24.1M. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below -$5M in any quarter next year |
Net income: $-13.054M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income > $20M in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 2026-13,054,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth from strategic partnerships | A primary condition in vTv Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $36.84M revenue in 2026-Q1. | Under Pressure | revenue falls below $20M in any quarter next year | Revenue: $0 FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $36.84M revenue in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 6, 20260 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-4.41 → $-4.15 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-4.41 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-4.41 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-4.41 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-4.41 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-3.89 | $0 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-4.41 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-4.41 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-4.41 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-4.41 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-4.41 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-4.41 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-3.89 | $0 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-3.89 | $0 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-3.89 | $0 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-4.77 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-4.07 | $0 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-4.07 | $0 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-4.77 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-4.77 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-4.77 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-4.77 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-4.77 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-4.77 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-4.77 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-4.77 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-4.35 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-4.35 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-4.35 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-4.35 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-4.35 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-4.35 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-4.35 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-4.35 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-4.35 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-4.35 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-4.35 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-4.35 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-4.35 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-4.35 | $1,000,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-4.43 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-4.15 | $800,000 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.