Valvoline (VVV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.03+1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VVV
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $32 VVV trades at 18× p/e, in line with its 15× p/e peer median, and our $35 fair value agrees. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $35–$48. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $45.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $131.15 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $39.04 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $11.46 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$35.00 – $48.00 (median $45.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-07-29
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 51% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 3.4 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.95/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $16.95 |
| 16.1 |
| 1.05 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $30.10 | 15.3 | 1.97 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $12.56 | 0.8 | 15.30 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $30.09 | 16.7 | 1.80 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $9.34 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $40.57 | 22.5 | 1.80 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $29.33 | 15.1 | 1.94 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $31.68 | 15.3 | 2.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $15.48 | 0.8 | 18.86 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $34.69 | 16.7 | 2.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $46.78 | 22.5 | 2.08 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $34.52 | 15.3 | 2.26 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $16.87 | 0.8 | 20.54 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $37.80 | 16.7 | 2.26 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $50.96 | 22.5 | 2.26 | Analyst | medium |