Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
Valvoline (VVV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$35.83-0.97%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.47 → 2.43 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for VVV yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating income rises to $86 million in Q2 FY2026 | Profit rises with better cost control. | Intact | Operating income falls below $67 million in Q2 FY2026 | Operating income: $112.2M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $86M. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 2026112,200,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
VVV is an execution-led growth story, with recent results showing strong revenue and operating-income growth alongside steady store expansion. The long-term thesis is intact, but management execution has been volatile and confidence in the evidence is medium.
VVV is valued at a premium to peers, and the valuation assessment is expensive. Expectations appear broadly aligned with the evidence, though the gap is slightly negative, so the market is not giving the business much room for weaker execution.
Near term, recent results and progress on core operations, store growth, and cost leverage point to continued fundamental strength. The main risk is a reversal of recently raised guidance, which could damage management credibility; the recent history of a deep miss and peer misses also warrant attention.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management sustaining growth and delivering on its stated priorities without cutting guidance. Consumer Discretionary peers CVNA, PAG, and KMX are useful signals: continued strong results may support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
For the 1-3 year view, VVV combines improving business momentum with an expensive valuation and meaningful execution sensitivity. The thesis remains intact, but hinges on sustained delivery and guidance credibility. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Valvoline grows revenue about 20% a year. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $1.7 billion in Q3 FY2026 |
Revenue: $544.6M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.05B. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 5, 2026544,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Top-line sales grew 25% underpinned by system-wide same-store sales growth of 8.2% and the contribution from new stores, including Breeze, which is performing well as we continue to execute against our integration plans.” “As a result, we are narrowing our guidance ranges and raising full-year system-wide same-store sales expectations.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
System-wide store count reaches about 2,409 by Q2 FY2026 | A supporting condition in Valvoline's published investment case. The stated target is 2409 stores. | Intact | Store count growth stalls or declines below 2,100 stores next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.47 → $2.43 · observed estimates
$2.55B → $2.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $2.47 | $2,545,905,247 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.47 | $2,545,905,247 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.47 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.47 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.47 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.47 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.44 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.44 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.44 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.44 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.44 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.44 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.44 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.44 | $2,544,546,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.43 | $2,549,196,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.43 | $2,549,196,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.43 | $2,549,196,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.43 | $2,549,196,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.43 | $2,549,196,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.43 | $2,549,196,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.43 | $2,549,196,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.43 | $2,549,196,546 | 2 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.43 | $2,552,474,707 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.43 | $2,556,150,222 | 3 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 12 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.