Valvoline (VVV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$36.18+7.23%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VVV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 14.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 141 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers
VVV — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-24
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet The disclosure required by this Item is included in
Why it matters: Valvoline raised its full-year same-store sales range to 7.5%–8%. Another strong quarter would support that higher range.
Supportive ifIn the November 18, 2026 earnings report, Q4 system-wide same-store sales growth is at least 7.5%.
Worry ifQ4 system-wide same-store sales growth is below 7.5%, or full-year guidance falls below the raised range.
Why it matters: The planned change would raise available credit from $475 million to $600 million and extend its term. Completion would confirm the stated liquidity plan.
Supportive ifA company filing confirms the amendment took effect. It has a $600 million credit line and a five-year term.
Worry ifA company filing says the amendment did not take effect. Or, it reports less available credit or a shorter term.
Why it matters: Valvoline kept its full-year store-addition target while adding 47 stores in Q3. Meeting the target would support its network growth plan.
Supportive ifThe next report shows fiscal 2026 net store additions of at least 330 stores.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 net store additions are below 330, or the company lowers its 330–360 target.
Why it matters: The company raised the low end of its adjusted EBITDA range after Q3 growth. A result in range would support that higher outlook.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA is at least $550 million and no more than $560 million.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA is below $550 million. Or, before reporting, the company cuts its range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$124 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $355 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,390 loss on $10,000 · 33.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.