Valvoline (VVV)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$32.03+1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VVV
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 100 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VVV — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-24
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation Under an Off-Balance Sheet The disclosure required by this Item is included in
Why it matters: Changes in capital spending can show shifts in growth plans or focus.
Watch forCapital spending guidance is now below $240 million.
Also watch forCapital spending guidance is now above $260 million.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below 5%, it may signal a slowdown in demand. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher EBITDA guidance shows strong operations. It also shows good cost management. This means better profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is now above $560 million for the fiscal year.
Worry ifGuidance is at or below $550 million. This shows possible operational problems.
Why it matters: A slowdown in store openings may show problems with growth plans.
Worry ifNet store additions fall below 330 for the full year.
Less concerning ifNet store additions meet or exceed 330 for the full year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$135 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $327 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,131 loss on $10,000 · 21.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth below 20% may mean rising costs or lower efficiency. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifOperating income growth was below 20% for Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth meets or exceeds 20% for Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in same-store sales growth would signal weakening demand amid rising costs.
Worry ifQ3 same-store sales growth was below 8%.
Less concerning ifQ3 same-store sales growth reported at or above 8%.
Why it matters: Adding more stores than expected shows strong growth. It shows good execution of the plan.
Supportive ifSystem-wide store additions exceed 30 in the next quarter.
Worry ifStore additions fall below 30.
Why it matters: A drop below this threshold would signal weaker demand and hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifSame-store sales growth is below 7.5%.
Less concerning ifSame-store sales growth remains at or above 8% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Fewer new stores may show problems with growth plans.
Worry ifNet store additions reported below 40 in Q4.
Less concerning ifNet store additions exceed 50 in Q4.
Why it matters: Completing this would help Valvoline's cash and debt situation.
Supportive ifThe $500 million senior notes offering was completed with good terms.
Worry ifNot completing the offering or bad terms were reported.