NCR Voyix (VYX)
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.14+2.01%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologyInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · VYX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
VYX — officer change
Dated 2026-06-08
The filing describes a stock incentive plan approval, not a management change.
Why it matters: Falling below this level shows problems in managing costs and profits. This can affect how investors feel.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is less than $432 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is above $432 million. This shows better cost management.
Why it matters: A higher EBITDA margin means the company is more efficient. It shows they are making more money.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is over 20% in Q2 results.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin is below 20%. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow shows the company is making progress on its financial health. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifCash from operations in Q2 is positive. It is over $42 million.
Worry ifCash from operations remains negative or does not improve from $42 million.
Why it matters: This report will give updates on cash flow, profits, and revenue trends.
Watch forThe earnings report shows good signs in cash flow and profits.
Also watch forEarnings report highlights continued losses and cash flow issues.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$223 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $588 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,379 loss on $10,000 · 53.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New contracts would validate the growth strategy and show demand for the Voyix Commerce Platform.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new enterprise contracts in Q3.
Worry ifNo new enterprise contracts were announced. This shows weak demand.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is moving towards profitability. A miss would raise concerns.
Watch forQ2 earnings show a profit or a smaller loss than expected.
Also watch forQ2 earnings fall short of expectations again. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows NCR Voyix is getting closer to making money.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2.
Why it matters: Stable revenue is key for the company's growth. It shows that the market likes its products.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue shows no decline compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 revenue continues to decline compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact NCR Voyix's performance. It may signal broader issues.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median for the first time.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: If growth is above 5%, it shows management is focused on steady revenue growth.
Supportive ifRecurring revenue grew above $459 million. This shows over 5% growth from last year.
Worry ifIf recurring revenue growth falls below 5%, it may mean problems with keeping customers.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows progress toward profit. This is an important goal for management.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 improves to less than -$5 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 worsens to more than -$5 million.
Why it matters: More new contracts would show strong demand for Voyix Commerce Platform, boosting future revenue.
Supportive ifNew customer contracts represent more than 13% of Remaining Contract Value in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNew customer contracts fell below 13% of Remaining Contract Value. This shows weaker demand.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show problems with the Hardware Business Transition. This would hurt growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue was below $1,800 million. This shows a decline worse than -18%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue stays the same or grows above $1,800 million. This shows recovery.
Why it matters: Strong growth in contract value shows the Voyix Commerce Platform is being adopted well. This helps future revenue.
Supportive ifRemaining Contract Value grows to over $286 million. This is more than a 65% increase from last year.
Worry ifRemaining Contract Value growth drops below 65%. This shows slower adoption.
Why it matters: Falling cash flow may show problems in managing costs. This can hurt financial health.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow reported below $190 million for 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted free cash flow is over $190 million. This shows better cash generation.
Why it matters: New contracts signal demand for the Voyix platform and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new enterprise customer contracts for the Voyix platform.
Worry ifNo new enterprise contracts are announced next quarter. This shows weaker demand.