Westamerica Bank (WABC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.39+0.52%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WABC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 9.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
WABC — officer change
Dated 2026-01-23
Director — Carter Welch: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the board, which is a routine governance event and not a departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: A decline could mean less money coming in. This can hurt overall profits.
Worry ifNoninterest income for Q3 is over $10 million.
Less concerning ifNoninterest income for Q3 falls below $10 million.
Why it matters: Loan growth is crucial for bank profitability. A decline could signal deeper issues in credit quality or demand.
Worry ifTotal loans grow by more than 2% from the $682.9 million reported in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal loans decline by more than 2% from the $682.9 million reported in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong finances. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend payout remains at $0.48 per share in the next announcement.
Worry ifThe dividend payout is cut below $0.48 per share.
Why it matters: Stable earnings are key to Westamerica's financial strength and dividend policy. A drop could raise concerns.
Worry ifQ3 net income meets or exceeds $27.4 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income falls below $27.4 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$61 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $181 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $952 loss on $10,000 · 9.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase would signal confidence in earnings and financial strength. It would support shareholder returns.
Supportive ifQ3 dividend announced at more than $0.48 per share.
Worry ifQ3 dividend remains at $0.48 or decreases.
Why it matters: Stable credit quality is crucial for banks. Rising nonperforming assets could signal risks.
Worry ifNonperforming assets stay under $1 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets go over $1 million. This shows a drop in credit quality.
Why it matters: Full execution would show good money management. It would also show care for shareholders.
Supportive ifAll 2,785,023 shares under the repurchase plan are bought back by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifLess than 1 million shares repurchased by year-end.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal broader issues in the financial sector. This may affect Westamerica Bank's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping expenses low is key to making money. Investors will watch expense trends closely.
Worry ifOperating expenses stay at or below $25.9 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating expenses go over $26.5 million in Q2 2026. This shows costs are rising.
Why it matters: More share buybacks may show that management trusts the company's value and finances.
Supportive ifThey announced more share buybacks beyond the current 2.78 million shares.
Worry ifNo new share repurchase announcements or a reduction in the repurchase plan.
Why it matters: The dividend shows the company wants to give money back to shareholders. A rise may show confidence.
Supportive ifThe dividend increases beyond $0.48 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe dividend remains at $0.48 per share or decreases.
Why it matters: A drop in net income may show weaker earnings. This can hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $27 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income remains at or above $27 million.
Why it matters: Net interest income is key for bank profitability. A decline may signal issues in loan demand or funding costs.
Worry ifNet interest income remains above $52.7 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet interest income drops below $52.7 million. This suggests possible problems ahead.
Why it matters: The repurchase plan may boost share value and show management's confidence in the company.
Supportive ifShare price increases by more than 5% following the announcement of the repurchase plan.
Worry ifShare price declines or remains flat after the announcement.
Why it matters: The Q2 earnings will show if Westamerica can maintain its earnings strength. Investors look for consistency in performance.
Watch forQ2 earnings per share exceeds $1.13, showing continued earnings strength.
Also watch forQ2 earnings per share is below $1.12. This shows possible weakness.
Why it matters: Stock buybacks show that management believes in the company's value. They can help share prices.
Supportive ifWestamerica is buying back at least 500,000 shares with the new plan.
Worry ifNo shares are repurchased under the new plan by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows financial strength. It shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend increases to $0.50 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo increase in dividend or a decrease in the next announcement.
Why it matters: Net interest income is crucial for bank profitability. A decline may signal challenges in loan growth or deposit costs.
Worry ifNet interest income in Q2 2026 drops below $52.7 million reported in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest income in Q2 2026 will be more than $52.7 million from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating expenses may show waste. This can hurt profits and returns for shareholders.
Worry ifOperating costs go over 45% of total revenues in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating costs stay at or below 42% of total revenues in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More nonperforming assets may show credit quality problems. This can change the bank's risk.
Worry ifNonperforming assets go over $1 million in the next report.
Less concerning ifNonperforming assets are less than $808 thousand.
Why it matters: The dividend shows how strong the company is. It also shows care for shareholders. A steady dividend keeps investors confident.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid as scheduled at $0.48 per share.
Worry ifThe dividend payment is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Active stock repurchases can signal management's confidence in the company's value. It can also support share price.
Supportive ifThe company buys back shares from the approved plan. This shows commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Worry ifNo shares are bought back under the new plan.