Westamerica Bank (WABC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$59.77-2.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WABC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WABC — officer change
Dated 2026-01-23
Director — Carter Welch: The filing discloses the appointment of a new independent director to the board, which is a routine governance event and not a departure of a senior executive.
Why it matters: Westamerica has kept the quarterly dividend at $0.48 for the last two quarters. The next declaration will test its stated capital return plan.
Supportive ifThe next board announcement declares a dividend of at least $0.48 per share.
Worry ifThe next board announcement declares a dividend below $0.48 per share or suspends it.
Why it matters: Average loans fell 11.1% from a year earlier in Q3. Another drop would point to weaker loan demand or a smaller loan book.
Worry ifQ4 average loans fall below $661.3 million, the Q3 level, or decline more than 11.1% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ4 average loans rise above $661.3 million and the year-over-year decline narrows from 11.1%.
Why it matters: Westamerica spent 40.8% of revenue on costs in Q3, while year-to-date costs rose 2.2%. A higher ratio would weaken its low-cost record.
Worry ifQ4 efficiency ratio rises above 41.3%, the Q2 level.
Less concerning ifQ4 efficiency ratio is at or below 40.8%, the Q3 level.
Why it matters: The margin rose to 3.81% in Q3 from 3.77% in Q2. A further rise would support earnings from the bank’s large securities book.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 3.81%, with net interest income above $53.5 million.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls below 3.77%, or net interest income falls below $52.7 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$72 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $178 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $727 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.