Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
WaFd, Inc. (WAFD)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$30.13+1.21%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.67 → 3.71 EPS · FY ending Sep 30, 2028 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WAFD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations stays at or above $79.4M by Q2 2026 | Cash from operations increased from $57.4M to $79.4M, supporting stable business activities. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $57.4M in any quarter after Q2 2026 | Cash from operations: $70.275M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=79378000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 202670,275,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional banking business with a moderate-risk, earnings-led long-term thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is intact, and recent momentum improved, but management execution and recent financial performance remain mixed.
WAFD is described as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually concentrated expectations.
For the multi-year view, annual diluted earnings per share and net income rose in fiscal 2026, and active loan originations increased, mostly in commercial lending. Near term, quarterly diluted earnings per share eased from the prior quarter, while the EverBank merger has no completed integration milestone; a next-call guidance cut is a stated risk.
The thesis hinges on completing the EverBank merger and showing integration benefits, while sustaining active loan growth and profitability. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts are unfavorable scenarios; continued earnings strength among sector bellwethers is a favorable signal to watch.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, WAFD’s long-term thesis is intact but still depends on execution, especially merger integration and steady earnings. The shares are cheap versus peers, but the evidence is mixed and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net income increases to at least $65.5M by Q2 2026 |
| WaFd is growing net income, up from $60.6M to $65.5M in recent quarters. |
| Intact |
| Net income falls below $60.6M in any quarter after Q2 2026 |
Net income: $66.13M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=65548000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 202666,130,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income increases to at least $83.8M by Q2 2026 | Operating income rose from $77.6M to $83.8M, showing better profit. | Intact | Operating income falls below $77.6M in any quarter after Q2 2026 | Operating income: $84.349M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=83806000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 202684,349,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue does not decline more than 10% year over year | A supporting condition in WaFd, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline no worse than -10% YoY. | Intact | Revenue declines more than 10% YoY in FY27 | Revenue growth: 7.3% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline no worse than -10% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 4, 20267.301002 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.67 → $3.71 · observed estimates
$0.85B → $0.82B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.67 | $852,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.83 | $852,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.83 | $852,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.71 | $819,800,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.