Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (WD)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$42.61+2.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - MortgagesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 43.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WD — earnings miss
Dated 2026-02-26
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, Walker & Dunlop, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release reporting its financial results for the quarter and year-to-date period ended December 31, 2025. A copy of this press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is hereby incorporated by reference into this
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. This helps the company make more money.
Supportive ifOperating income goes above $30 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income stays below $20 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher costs can hurt profits and show problems with indemnified loans. This may affect future earnings.
Worry ifOperating and credit costs are over $23.2 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating and credit costs are under $23.2 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could impact Walker & Dunlop's performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth reported at 10% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA shows improved efficiency and profit. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA is over $70 million in Q2.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is under $60 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends affect the overall sector. A drop could signal deeper issues for Walker & Dunlop.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 12% over three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth is still above the median. This shows stability.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well the company is doing. A drop may mean bigger profit problems.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is less than $38.8 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is $38.8 million or higher.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows better cost control. It also means more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income went up with a score above 60%.
Worry ifOperating income went up with a score below 60%.
Why it matters: Lower revenue growth would show Walker & Dunlop is struggling to meet its growth goals.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported at 5% or higher year over year.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for financial health. It shows how well the company manages money.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2.
Why it matters: More GSE market share shows strong competition and good capital strategies. It shows the company's growth potential.
Supportive ifGSE market share exceeds 15% in Q3.
Worry ifGSE market share remains below or equal to 15% in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings per share growth shows more profit. It also shows operational success.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings per share exceed $0.50.
Worry ifQ2 earnings per share fall below $0.30.
Why it matters: Better cash flow would show Walker & Dunlop is enhancing its financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations improved with a score above 10%.
Worry ifCash flow from operations improved with a score below 10%.
Why it matters: Transaction volume growth shows how well Walker & Dunlop is expanding its market share. Strong growth can signal ongoing demand in commercial real estate.
Supportive ifQ3 transaction volume growth exceeds 3% compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 transaction volume growth is less than or equal to 3%.
Why it matters: The servicing portfolio is important for steady income. Slower growth may show problems with client relationships.
Worry ifServicing portfolio growth falls below 6% year over year.
Less concerning ifServicing portfolio growth remains at or above 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Adjusted core EPS shows how profitable a company is. A rise means strong earnings and efficiency.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted core EPS rises above $1.19.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted core EPS falls below $1.19.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$186 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $389 loss on $10,000 · 3.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,375 loss on $10,000 · 53.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.