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WEN
The Wendy's CompanyNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-12
$6.790.00%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly stance. Peer multiples imply a price about 61% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This valuation suggests that the recent financials and earnings quality are not flashing deterioration. If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting WEN and other Consumer Discretionary names. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $1.28B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-24
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $6.79. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$17.30consensus
Range $17.16 – $17.45
vs price: -61% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$10.83consensus
Range $10.83 – $10.83
vs price: -37% below
Method agreement — · 1 method
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $6.79 WEN trades at 8× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $17 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $6.00–$12. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
8.4x
peer 21.0x · own history —
Premium
0.4x peer
Growth the price needs
-61%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$17.30
range $17.16 – $17.45
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is above the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced in
The price sits about 61% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings quality
Not enough signal yet.
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
39th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral23 analysts, 16% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.17 → $0.17 (-1.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 21 cut, 23 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 16% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Provisional
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$183.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$416.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,452.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 14d
Watch for Q2 earnings results to show revenue growth
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows recovery for Wendy's. This is important after recent leadership changes.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-112d agoYahoo! Finance
Threatens: Improve U.S. business performance
U.S. business performance may be negatively impacted.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting WEN and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for WEN and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping WEN and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits WEN and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
- If WEN misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -31% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-094d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 4, 2026, Suzanne M. Thuerk, Chief Accounting Officer (principal accounting officer) of The Wendy’s Company (the “Company”), provided notice to the Company of her intention to resign from the Company to pursue an opportunity outside the restaurant space. In connection with the above, on June 7, 2026, Aaron M. Kale, currently Vice President –…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
No score history yet for this stock.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.