Weyco Group, Inc. (WEYS)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.37+2.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - Footwear & AccessoriesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · WEYS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
WEYS — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-06-24
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 22, 2026, the Board of Directors (“Board”) of Weyco Group, Inc. (“Company”) authorized the termination of the Weyco Group, Inc. Pension Plan, as amended and restated (the “Plan”), effective as of August 31, 2026, subject to review by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation under its standard termination procedures. The Board also approved the termination of the Weyco Group, Inc. Pension Trust in connection with the termination of the Pl…
Why it matters: Changes in demand can affect sales for Weyco's brands. This is true during economic shifts.
Worry ifConsumer demand for footwear is rising. This boosts sales significantly.
Less concerning ifConsumer demand is falling. This leads to lower sales for key brands.
Why it matters: Sales drops in these brands hurt total revenue. A recovery in demand could mean better results.
Supportive ifSales for Stacy Adams and BOGS increase by more than 5% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifSales for Stacy Adams and BOGS decline by more than 5% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: This termination could affect Weyco's money situation and cash flow. Investors will watch how it changes the balance sheet.
Worry ifThe company says the transition is going well. There is no bad financial effect from ending the pension plan.
Less concerning ifThe company may have surprise costs or cash flow problems from ending the pension plan.
Why it matters: The pension plan termination may impact Weyco's financial health and liquidity. Investors will want to see how this affects cash flow.
Worry ifManagement explains how much money they save from ending the pension plan.
Less concerning ifManagement reports surprise costs or problems from ending the pension plan.
Why it matters: Tariff changes can impact costs and margins. Stability supports better earnings outlook.
Watch forNo new tariffs imposed beyond the current 12.5% rate.
Also watch forNew tariffs or increases beyond 12.5% announced.
Why it matters: Retail sales growth signals consumer demand. It affects overall revenue and margins.
Supportive ifRetail segment sales increase over 5% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifRetail segment sales decline or grow less than 2% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong liquidity is vital for growth. Weak liquidity could limit strategic options.
Worry ifCash and cash equivalents remain above $90 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCash and cash equivalents fall below $85 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Successful tariff refunds can boost earnings. Delays or denials could hurt margins.
Supportive ifThe company got approval for tariff refund claims. These claims total $1.2 million.
Worry ifFurther delays or denials of tariff refund claims.
Why it matters: A drop in operating earnings means costs are rising or sales are weak.
Worry ifQ3 operating earnings are less than $16 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating earnings are more than $17 million.
Why it matters: The termination may affect cash flow and future expenses. Investors will look for clarity on financial impacts.
Worry ifWeyco reports a decrease in pension-related expenses by at least 15% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifPension costs stay the same or go up in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend payouts show how much management trusts their cash flow and finances.
Watch forManagement announces an increase in the dividend payout beyond $0.28 per share.
Also watch forManagement reduces the dividend payout or maintains it at $0.28 per share.
Why it matters: The timing of tariff refund claims affects gross margins and overall earnings. Updates could signal recovery progress.
Watch forManagement gives a timeline for submitting claims. These claims are for Phase 2 entries worth $1.2 million.
Also watch forThere are no updates on when to submit claims. This creates uncertainty about recovery.
Why it matters: Maintaining a strong balance sheet is crucial for Weyco's financial health. It impacts liquidity.
Supportive ifTotal debt to equity ratio reported below 0.5 in the Q2 earnings.
Worry ifTotal debt to equity ratio reported above 1.0 in the Q2 earnings.
Why it matters: Florsheim's growth is key to overall revenue. Strong sales support the organic growth priority.
Supportive ifFlorsheim brand sales grow more than 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifFlorsheim brand sales decline or grow less than 5% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Successful tariff refunds can boost margins and earnings. This impacts cost management efforts.
Supportive ifWeyco receives approval for more than $1.2 million in tariff refunds.
Worry ifNo new tariff refunds are approved. Claims are delayed longer than expected.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows good cash flow. It shows management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifWeyco declares a cash dividend of $0.28 or higher per share.
Worry ifWeyco does not declare a dividend or lowers the dividend per share.
Why it matters: Tariff policy changes can directly affect costs and margins. This impacts future earnings.
Watch forU.S. tariffs on imports from China are reduced below 10%.
Also watch forU.S. tariffs on imports from China increase above 12.5%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $301 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,413 loss on $10,000 · 14.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.