Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
GeneDx Holdings Corp. (WGS)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
$69.34+1.02%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.20 → 1.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WGS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Growth in exome and genome revenue | New leadership and focus on exome and genome revenue support recovery. | Improving | exome and genome revenue growth stalls or declines next year | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99.1 GeneDx Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results • Reported second quarter 2026 revenue of $114.4 million, including $100.3 million in exome and genome revenue • Reported exome and genome volume growth of 32% year-over-year • Reported adjusted gross margin (1) of 70% and adjusted net income (1) of $0.4 million • Reiterating full year 2026 revenue guidance of $475 to $490 million with exome and genome volume growth of at least 30% • Hosting conference call today at 4:30 p.m.” “• Expanded the total number of state Medicaid programs covering outpatient exome and/or genome sequencing to 39 following Mississippi Medicaid’s announcement of coverage for both tests effective July 1, 2026.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder, because the business remains loss-making on a GAAP basis. The long-term thesis is in watch status: management is making progress on adjusted profitability and test growth, while recent financial performance remains weak.
The valuation is cheap versus peers, but the evidence flags the valuation as unjustified and shows a meaningful expectations gap. The market appears to allow for some recovery, yet weak results and elevated risk make that confidence hard to support; the snapshot does not specify exactly what earnings expectations are priced in.
Near term, revenue is tracking management's lower 2026 guidance, and exome and genome test volumes are growing; adjusted net income moved from a loss in the first quarter to a small profit in the second. GAAP net losses remain, and erratic, weakening earnings surprises add risk despite the recent earnings beat and management's reiterated goal of positive adjusted net income for 2026.
Over the next year, the thesis depends on management sustaining test growth and reaching positive adjusted net income without another guidance cut. Weaker jobs data could increase recession concerns for cyclical businesses, while continued strength from sector bellwethers could support the Healthcare backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, WGS offers a growth-and-profitability improvement thesis, but its weak recent performance and elevated risk mean progress still needs to be demonstrated. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Gross margin near 70.5% by end of 2025 | The company targets a gross margin near 70.5% and positive adjusted net income by year-end. | Improving | gross margin falls below 65% in FY25 | Gross margin: 68.37% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~70.5%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 202668.365956 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve positive adjusted net income in 2026 | The company targets a gross margin near 70.5% and positive adjusted net income by year-end. | Broken | adjusted net income remains negative through FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Net income • Adjusted net income was $0.4 million, up $8.6 million from the first quarter of 2026 and compared to adjusted net income of $16.4 million in the second quarter of 2025.” “GeneDx 2026 Guidance GeneDx has reaffirmed its full year 2026 guidance and has provided guidance for the third quarter of 2026.” Delivery assessment Nov 1, 2026 |
Revenue reaches at least $475M in 2026 | A primary condition in GeneDx Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=475 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | revenue falls below $475M in FY26 | Revenue: $114.44M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=475 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 3, 2026114,440,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.10 → $1.20 · observed estimates
$0.59B → $0.60B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.10 | $594,900,000 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.10 | $594,900,000 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.10 | $594,900,000 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.10 | $594,900,000 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.10 | $594,167,211 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.10 | $594,167,211 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.10 | $594,900,000 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.10 | $594,179,411 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.10 | $594,179,411 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.10 | $594,900,000 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.10 | $594,900,000 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.12 | $596,151,711 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.10 | $594,900,000 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.12 | $594,688,890 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.14 | $594,688,890 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.14 | $594,688,890 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.14 | $594,688,890 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.12 | $596,622,222 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.12 | $596,622,222 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.12 | $596,622,222 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.12 | $596,622,222 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.12 | $596,622,222 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.12 | $596,622,222 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.12 | $596,622,222 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.12 | $596,622,222 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.17 | $598,544,444 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.17 | $598,511,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.17 | $598,511,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.17 | $598,511,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.17 | $598,511,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.17 | $598,511,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.17 | $598,511,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.17 | $598,511,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.17 | $598,511,111 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.20 | $598,925,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.20 | $598,950,000 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.