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WingstopNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$162.29+5.47%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, and management's recent track record has been steady, with capital-friendly moves. However, earnings quality is neutral, risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 81% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified, as it is rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and the performance of sector bellwethers like MCD and SBUX. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $3.99B
- Employees
- 1,367
- IPO date
- 2015-05-06
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-29
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $162.29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$89.68consensus
Range $70.33 – $203.31
vs price: +81% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfair
$160.77consensus
Range $150.73 – $522.86
vs price: +1% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $162 the market pays 38× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 87× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $90 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $190–$375. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
38.0x
peer 21.0x · own history 86.6x
Premium
1.8x peer
0.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
81%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$89.68
range $70.81 – $203.31
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 81% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
81st pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.69x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
53rd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral26 analysts, 83% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.04 → $1.04 (-0.3% / 30d). 4 raised, 22 cut, 26 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 93.8% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in declining, with may be transitioning (~0.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$301.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$632.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,844.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 7d
Watch for domestic same store sales decline worsening beyond -8.7%
Why it matters: A larger decline in same store sales would signal deeper consumer spending issues and hurt growth.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Domestic same store sales decline worse than -8.7% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Domestic same store sales decline improves to better than -5% in Q2 2026.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WING yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting WING and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If WING raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If WING cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-04-29), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping WING and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits WING and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-291mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition The following information is furnished pursuant to Item 2.02, “Results of Operations and Financial Condition.” Consequently, it shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Exchange Act or the Securities Act of 1933, as amend…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-0.8 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.