Reading WLK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WLK free→Reading WLK? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WLK free→NYSEMaterialsSpecialty ChemicalsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, WLK is below typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 36% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If WLK cuts guidance on the next call, that is a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $88.50. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $88 WLK trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $65 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $106–$145. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 35% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Materials names rated weak grew net income 51% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=1088).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.27x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.70 → $1.95 (+14.9% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 11 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 36% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 38.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$140.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$439.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,777.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results give insights into financial health and challenges. This is key for the future.
Confirms one read:Earnings beat expectations and show positive revenue growth.
Confirms the other:Earnings miss expectations and show negative revenue growth.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WLK yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026 , Westlake Corporation (the "Company"), issued a press release announcing its 2026 first quarter results. A copy of the press release is furnished with this Current Report as Exhibit 99.1. The information furnished pursuant to this Current Report, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and will not be incorporated by reference into…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$106.00 – $145.00 (median $118.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-05
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Specialty Chemicals.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WLK Westlake Corporation | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 25 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SHW Sherwin-Williams | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ECL Ecolab | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PPG PPG Industries | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
LYB LyondellBasell | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | — | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Materials names rated stable grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=210).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLB
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving the PEM profitability improvement plan's targeted $600 million in EBITDA improvement for 2026.
Continue to maintain dividend payments as part of capital allocation strategy.
Continue efforts to manage costs and improve operational efficiency.
Management aims to improve cash flow from operations to support business sustainability.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows commitment to shareholders. This can help boost investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 dividend remains at or increases from $0.53 per share.
Disproves:Q2 dividend is cut below $0.53 per share.
Why it matters: Dividends mean the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Confirms:The company announces a dividend payment for Q2 2026.
Disproves:The company suspends or cuts the dividend payment for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Stable cash flow means better efficiency. This matters for future investments.
Confirms:Cash from operating activities improves from -$94M in Q1 to above -$70M.
Disproves:Cash from operations worsens or stays below -$94M.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows progress in managing costs. This is key for the company.
Confirms:Q2 operating income improves from -$172M in Q1 to above -$150M.
Disproves:Q2 operating income drops more or stays below -$172M.
Why it matters: Better cash flow means the company is cutting costs and working better.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations improves by 15% in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations declines by 5% in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Tracking EBITDA progress is key to meeting the $600M target for 2026.
Confirms:Q2 EBITDA shows improvement of at least 10% compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Q2 EBITDA improvement is less than 5% compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in materials revenue may mean a recovery is coming.
Confirms:Materials sector revenue growth turns positive for the first time in three years.
Disproves:The materials sector's revenue growth is still negative. This has happened for another quarter.
Chief Financial Officer — Jonathan H. Baksht: Jonathan H. Baksht was hired as the new CFO, succeeding Mr. M. Steven Bender who is retiring.