Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$76.71+2.12%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.86 → 4.84 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WRB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Sustain dividend hikes and share buybacks | A supporting condition in W. R. Berkley Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase dividends and buybacks. | Intact | Dividend or buyback reductions over next year | Dividend hike & buyback reset confirmed (qualitative) News reports a dividend hike and buyback reset in June 2026, followed by ongoing buybacks in July 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
WRB is a quality insurance business with a multi-year view built on disciplined underwriting and steady management priorities. The thesis is intact, but recent signals are mixed and near-term earnings risk is not absent.
WRB trades at a premium to peers, reflecting expectations of durable business quality. The valuation is tagged as stretched, with a 0.17 expectations gap; fragility is low, but the evidence does not show that the premium has disappeared.
In the latest quarter, insurance segment pre-tax income rose year over year and the combined ratio improved, while return on equity remained above management’s stated threshold. Recent earnings beats support the near-term picture, but the signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued underwriting discipline, adequate rates, and management sustaining strong returns. Fed rate cuts could weigh on the sector, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support momentum; the supplied evidence gives limited detail on the president transition.
For the next 1 to 3 years, WRB’s long-term thesis rests on strong underwriting and management execution, balanced against a stretched valuation and sensitivity to rates and guidance. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Analysts expect steady earnings growth around $4.67 per share in 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $4.5 in FY 2026 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income growth to maintain or exceed Q1 2026 level | Operating income grew 22.5% to $514 million in Q1 2026. | Broken | operating income falls below $514 million in next year | Operating income: $574.324M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $514.3 million operating income. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 19, 2026574,324,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
After-tax return on equity above 15% | Berkley keeps strong profit margins near 21% return on equity. | Broken | after-tax return on equity falls below 15% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Management commented: The Company continued to deliver outstanding results in the first quarter of 2026 with an annualized 21.2% return on beginning‑of‑year stockholders’ equity, reflecting ongoing growth in underwriting and investment income.” “We remain confident in our ability to exceed our 15% target after‑tax return on equity for the foreseeable future.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.82 → $4.84 · observed estimates
$13.37B → $15.66B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.82 | $13,371,376,120 | 18 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.82 | $15,125,374,054 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.82 | $13,298,751,120 | 18 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.81 | $13,302,995,290 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.82 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.82 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.82 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.83 | $13,302,995,290 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.83 | $13,302,995,290 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.83 | $13,302,995,290 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.83 | $13,302,995,290 | 18 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.83 | $15,344,470,530 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.83 | $15,572,443,257 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.83 | $15,572,443,257 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.83 | $15,572,443,257 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.83 | $15,572,443,257 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.83 | $15,572,443,257 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.83 | $15,572,443,257 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.83 | $15,572,443,257 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.83 | $15,572,443,257 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.83 | $15,572,443,257 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.84 | $15,576,461,439 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.85 | $15,581,252,984 | 12 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.86 | $15,581,252,984 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.86 | $15,581,252,984 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.86 | $15,581,252,984 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.86 | $15,581,252,984 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.86 | $15,554,625,553 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.86 | $15,550,819,501 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.86 | $15,556,546,773 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.87 | $15,556,546,773 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.87 | $15,556,546,773 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.87 | $15,556,546,773 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.87 | $15,780,568,071 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.88 | $15,785,642,671 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.88 | $15,785,602,671 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.88 | $15,785,602,671 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.88 | $15,785,602,671 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.88 | $15,785,602,671 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.88 | $15,785,602,671 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.85 | $15,715,710,278 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.85 | $15,706,093,548 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.85 | $15,706,093,548 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.85 | $15,685,761,230 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.85 | $15,685,761,230 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.85 | $15,678,761,230 | 11 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.85 | $15,678,761,230 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.85 | $15,678,761,230 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.84 | $15,655,318,739 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.84 | $15,655,318,739 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.84 | $15,655,318,739 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.84 | $15,655,318,739 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.84 | $15,655,318,739 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.84 | $15,655,318,739 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.84 | $15,655,018,739 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.84 | $15,655,018,739 | 11 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 7 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 8 recorded
3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.