Reading WTFC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WTFC free→Reading WTFC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WTFC free→NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, quality intact. If WTFC cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative, as the Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $159.26. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $159 WTFC trades at 13× p/e, in line with its 12× p/e peer median. Our $152 fair value reflects that, high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 5% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Financials names rated strong grew net income 67% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3733).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.91x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Financials names rated robust grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 54% for the rest of the cohort, n=3541).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.01 → $3.15 (+4.6% / 30d). 11 raised, 1 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$234.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,930.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows the company is doing well. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of a dividend per share increase above the current level of $0.50.
Disproves:No dividend increase will be announced in the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WTFC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition The information in this Current Report is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. The information in this Current Report shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. On April 20, 2026, Wintrust Financial Cor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Regional Banks.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WTFC Wintrust Financial | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | moderate |
HDB HDFC BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
IBN ICICI BANK LTD | — | — | moderate |
ITUB ITAU UNIBANCO HOLDING SA | — | — | moderate |
FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 2 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not enough signal yet.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLF
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to increase the dividend per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Focus on increasing net income through operational improvements and growth.
Aim to increase operating income through efficiency and revenue growth.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader challenges for Wintrust. This may affect its performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth falls below its median of 12%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays above its median of 12%.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows good management. It also shows the business is performing well.
Confirms:Q2 net income reported above $30 million, marking over 10% growth year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Revenue growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher operating income growth shows the company is doing better. It is making more money.
Confirms:Operating income growth is over 15% compared to last year.
Disproves:Operating income growth is below 5% compared to last year.