Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Terawulf, Inc. (WULF)
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$10.08-13.85%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for WULF yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain $250 million senior secured revolving credit facility in 2026-Q2 | It secured a $250 million credit facility to manage financial obligations. | Intact | Credit facility falls below $250 million or is withdrawn | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and transition story, moving toward contracted high-performance computing (HPC) leases while expanding data-center capacity. The long-term thesis has some execution progress, but recent financial performance is weak and the overall state remains watch.
The valuation model shows a premium versus peers, while its low confidence and negative expectations gap suggest the valuation case is uncertain. The snapshot labels pricing as justified and fragility as low, but does not provide enough detail to define precisely what growth expectations the market assumes.
Near term, earnings risk is elevated, with a 56% estimated chance of a miss and a run of recent misses. Over the multi-year view, HPC lease revenue rose to 71% of Q2 revenue, and the Muskie campus plan is on track, though initial electric service is expected in Q4 2028. Cash and restricted cash were about $3.0 billion at Q2 end, while management’s financing progress is mixed.
The thesis depends on continued growth in contracted HPC leases and delivery of the Muskie development plan. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while the snapshot also flags rate changes and Financials-sector earnings as factors for WULF, though it gives limited detail on how these relate to the company’s business.
For the next 1 to 3 years, WULF combines clear progress in HPC leasing with weak results, elevated earnings risk, and uncertain valuation support. The multi-year thesis depends on execution catching up with the company’s expansion plans. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is expanding into AI data centers with the Muskie Data Campus. |
| Improving |
| Significant delays or cancellations in Muskie Data Campus expansion |
482MW contracted vs 250-500MW target 482MW power deal secured; Google credit support for $19B project; regulatory exemption granted. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $19 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in Terawulf, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=19000 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | Revenue falls below $19 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $44.767M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=19000 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202644,767,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.12 → $-0.29 · observed estimates
$0.97B → $0.85B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.12 | $965,091,847 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.20 | $951,315,060 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.13 | $965,091,847 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.13 | $965,091,847 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.13 | $965,091,847 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.13 | $965,091,847 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.14 | $960,353,562 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.20 | $943,895,720 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.14 | $960,353,562 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.14 | $960,353,562 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.14 | $960,353,562 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.20 | $943,895,720 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.20 | $943,895,720 | 2 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.14 | $960,353,562 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.25 | $915,953,856 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.22 | $906,310,310 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.25 | $915,953,856 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.24 | $908,123,560 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.24 | $908,123,560 | 3 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.25 | $915,953,856 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.25 | $915,953,856 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.25 | $915,953,856 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.25 | $915,953,856 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.25 | $915,953,856 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.25 | $915,953,856 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.21 | $880,378,336 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.21 | $880,378,336 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.21 | $880,378,336 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.21 | $880,378,336 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.21 | $880,378,336 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.21 | $880,378,336 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.21 | $880,378,336 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.21 | $880,378,336 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.21 | $880,378,336 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.21 | $886,003,262 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.21 | $886,003,262 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.21 | $886,003,262 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.21 | $878,690,979 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.21 | $878,690,979 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.21 | $878,690,979 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.21 | $878,690,979 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.21 | $878,690,979 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.21 | $878,690,979 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.21 | $878,690,979 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.21 | $878,690,979 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.21 | $882,551,454 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.21 | $882,551,454 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.21 | $882,551,454 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.21 | $882,551,454 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.21 | $882,551,454 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.21 | $882,551,454 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.21 | $882,551,454 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.21 | $882,551,454 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.21 | $882,551,454 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.21 | $882,551,454 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.21 | $882,551,454 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.23 | $879,158,881 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.23 | $879,158,881 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.23 | $879,806,093 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.23 | $879,806,093 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.23 | $879,806,093 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.23 | $878,561,359 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.23 | $878,561,359 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.24 | $864,954,344 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.24 | $864,954,344 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.24 | $864,954,344 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.24 | $864,954,344 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.24 | $863,423,909 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.24 | $863,423,909 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.24 | $863,423,652 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.24 | $863,423,652 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.24 | $863,423,652 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.24 | $863,423,652 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.24 | $863,423,652 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.24 | $863,423,652 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.24 | $863,423,652 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.24 | $863,423,652 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.24 | $863,423,652 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.24 | $863,423,652 | 8 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.24 | $864,051,042 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.24 | $864,051,042 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.24 | $864,051,042 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.24 | $864,051,042 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.24 | $864,051,042 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.24 | $864,051,042 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.24 | $864,051,042 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.24 | $864,051,042 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.24 | $864,051,042 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.24 | $864,051,042 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.29 | $856,925,221 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.29 | $856,926,042 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.29 | $856,926,042 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.29 | $856,926,042 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.29 | $856,926,042 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.29 | $856,926,042 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.29 | $853,184,125 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.29 | $853,184,125 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.29 | $853,184,125 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.29 | $853,184,125 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.29 | $853,184,125 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.29 | $853,184,125 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.29 | $853,184,125 | 8 / 14 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.29 | $853,184,125 | 8 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 24 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.