Xcel Energy (XEL)
NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-07-07
$80.67+0.37%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading XEL? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track XEL free→NASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading XEL? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track XEL free→QuarterlyIQ Insights · XEL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $80.67. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $81 XEL trades at 2.1× p/b, below its 2.3× p/b peer median, but our blended $76 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $86–$101. Note: our $76 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($86–$101). Not investment advice.
$86.00 – $101.00 (median $91.00) · 14 analysts · as of 2026-07-07
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $91.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $37.98 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $57.47 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $100.19 | 24.4 | 4.10 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/B | 12M | $88.51 | 2.3 | 38.03 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $94.33 | 24.4 | 3.86 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $72.55 | 3.1 | 23.62 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $147.06 | 38.1 | 3.86 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $40.14 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $78.89 | 20.4 | 3.86 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $94.64 | 24.4 | 3.87 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $138.68 | 24.4 | 5.67 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/B | 3Y | $125.29 | 2.3 | 53.83 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $131.17 | 24.4 | 5.37 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $100.66 | 3.1 | 32.76 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $204.49 | 38.1 | 5.37 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $109.71 | 20.4 | 5.37 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $172.23 | 24.4 | 7.05 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/B | 5Y | $157.95 | 2.3 | 67.86 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $162.40 | 24.4 | 6.65 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $124.63 | 3.1 | 40.57 | Analyst | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $253.19 | 38.1 | 6.65 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $135.83 | 20.4 | 6.65 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.