XEL
Xcel EnergyNASDAQUtilitiesUtilities - Regulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-05-08
As of May 8, 2026, XEL has a composite score of 14.0 and a signal label of "mild favorable." The valuation score increased by 10.0 points to 56.1, leading to a change in the valuation label from "full" to "fair." The current analysis is provisional.
Price
Daily closes from AlphaVantage. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Factor signals
Read top-to-bottom: thesis (is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold), watch flags (has something changed worth re-reading), and position context (how violent might the path be). Each pill is a parallel diagnostic — never aggregated into a single score.
Thesis
— is this a strong company over a 1–3 year hold?Why this rank
- Direction share1.00
- Slope (norm)-0.12
- Bonus0.00
Why this rank
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
Why this rank
Watch
— has something changed worth re-reading?Why this setup
EPS estimate $0.77 → $0.79 (+2.7% / 30d). 6 raised, 3 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 89% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 14.4% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
F4 · Management deep-dive — recent events, stated priorities, guidance track record
Recent 8-K events
1 material event in the last 24 months — top 1 listed below.
Stated priorities
3 priorityies extracted from earnings transcripts (as of 2026-05-08).
- 1.Reaffirm EPS guidancegrowthbehind0% progress
4/30: “Xcel Energy reaffirms its 2026 ongoing earnings per share guidance of $4.04 to $4.16.”
Why this status
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Xcel Energy has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 per share. The ongoing earnings per share for Q1 2026 was $0.91, up from $0.84 in Q1 2025, indicating progress towards the guidance range. The trajectory is delivering as expected.
- 2.Increase revenue through rate casesgrowthbehind0% progressprovisional
1/2: “PSCo filed a natural gas rate case seeking an increase in revenue of $190 million or 11.6%.”
Why this status
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Xcel Energy has filed multiple rate cases, including a $190 million increase for PSCo in 2026. Revenue for Q1 2026 was $4.021 billion, up from $3.906 billion in Q1 2025, showing some progress. However, the overall status remains behind expectations.
- 3.Enter equity distribution agreementcapital allocationmixed35% progress
5/1: “Xcel Energy entered into an equity distribution agreement with multiple financial institutions.”
Why this status
Newly stated in 2026-Q2. Xcel Energy entered into an equity distribution agreement to enhance capital allocation. The financial impact of this agreement is not yet reflected in the available financial data, indicating limited progress so far.
Guidance track record
Insufficient guidance history for this ticker.
Position context
— how violent might the path be while I hold it?Why this risk level
Recent vol — 30d annualized 24%; 252d 19%.
Drawdown — Max 1y −12%. Bad day move −2%.
Beta to sector ETF (XLU) — 0.05 over 1y.
Liquidity — score 100/100.
Sub-scores — vol 68/100, drawdown 77/100, beta 5/100, earnings vol —.
via XLU
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive — historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only — describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-05-08.
What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
- score change · valuation_scoreseverity 20
Valuation rose by 10.0 points (from 46.1 to 56.1).
- label change · valuation_labelseverity 20
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
As of 2026-05-08, the valuation score for XEL increased by 10.0 points, changing from 46.1 to 56.1. The valuation label transitioned from 'full' to 'fair'. The overall scores indicate a composite score of 14.0 with a confidence label of 'medium' and a risk label of 'moderate'. The data is provisional.
as of 2026-05-08
Management scorecard
How management runs the business — capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What management is focused on
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
- #1
Reaffirm EPS guidance
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Xcel Energy continues to reaffirm its 2026 EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 per share.
Watch →BehindStated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Xcel Energy has consistently reaffirmed its 2026 EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 per share. The ongoing earnings per share for Q1 2026 was $0.91, up from $0.84 in Q1 2025, indicating progress towards the guidance range. The trajectory is delivering as expected.
0%CEO/CFO:“Xcel Energy reaffirms its 2026 ongoing earnings per share guidance of $4.04 to $4.16.”Earnings callSource dated 2026-04-30Stated 3 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (3)
- 2026-Q1Earnings call
“Xcel Energy reaffirms its 2026 ongoing earnings per share guidance of $4.04 to $4.16.”
- 2025-Q4Earnings call
“Xcel Energy reaffirms 2026 EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 per share.”
- 2025-Q3Earnings call
“Xcel Energy Inc. reaffirms its 2025 ongoing earnings per share (EPS) guidance of $3.75 to $3.85 per share.”
- #2
Increase revenue through rate cases
GrowthNew since 2026-05-04Xcel Energy aims to increase revenue by filing rate cases with regulatory commissions.
BehindStated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Xcel Energy has filed multiple rate cases, including a $190 million increase for PSCo in 2026. Revenue for Q1 2026 was $4.021 billion, up from $3.906 billion in Q1 2025, showing some progress. However, the overall status remains behind expectations.
0%CEO/CFO:“PSCo filed a natural gas rate case seeking an increase in revenue of $190 million or 11.6%.”Press releaseSource dated 2026-01-02Stated 2 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04provisionalShow history (2)
- 2026-Q1Press release
“PSCo filed a natural gas rate case seeking an increase in revenue of $190 million or 11.6%.”
- 2025-Q4Press release
“PSCo filed an electric rate case seeking an increase in revenue of $356 million or 9.9%.”
- #3
Enter equity distribution agreement
Capital allocationNew since 2026-05-04Xcel Energy entered into an equity distribution agreement to manage capital allocation.
Behind →MixedNewly stated in 2026-Q2. Xcel Energy entered into an equity distribution agreement to enhance capital allocation. The financial impact of this agreement is not yet reflected in the available financial data, indicating limited progress so far.
35%CEO/CFO:“Xcel Energy entered into an equity distribution agreement with multiple financial institutions.”Multiple sourcesSource dated 2026-05-01Stated 1 of last 8 quartersFirst seen 2026-05-04Show history (1)
- 2026-Q2Multiple sources
“Xcel Energy entered into an equity distribution agreement with multiple financial institutions.”
How this stock is priced
Two ways to read price: against peers in the same business, and against the company's own history.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
P/E over the last 5 years
71 monthly pointsHow this compares
A side-by-side read on composite, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Composite | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
XEL Xcel Energy | +14 | fair | moderate |
NEE NextEra Energy | +19 | full | moderate |
CEG Constellation Energy | +16 | full | elevated |
SO Southern Company | +19 | fair | moderate |
DUK Duke Energy | +28 | inexpensive | moderate |
Risk — how this stock moves
What a normal day looks like, what a bad day looks like, and the worst the last year has thrown at it.
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios — if X happens, the score would shift by about Y points. These are not predictions.
- If utilities sector trend rises from -0.04 into 'improving' (>= +0.20)+5.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is raised (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)+4.0 pts
- If next-quarter guidance is cut (currently NEW as of 2026-04-30)-8.0 pts
- If rates state reverses from -0.37 (negative) to +0.37 (positive)-7.3 pts
- If utilities sector trend falls from -0.04 into 'weakening' (<= -0.20)-5.0 pts
Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-309d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 30, 2026, Xcel Energy released earnings results for the first quarter of 2026. See additional information in the Earnings Release furnished as exhibit 99.01.
earnings preannouncementneutralscore 54 - 2026-05-018d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. On May 1, 2026, Xcel Energy Inc. (“Xcel Energy”) entered into an equity distribution agreement (the “Equity Distribution Agreement”) with (i) Barclays Capital Inc., BMO Capital Markets Corp., BNP Paribas Securities Corp., BNY Mellon Capital Markets, LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., BTIG, LLC, CIBC World Markets Corp., Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC, Huntington Securities, Inc., Jefferies LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Mizuho Sec…
capital allocationneutralscore 43
Score history
The composite score, snapshot by snapshot. The dotted line at zero separates leaning-positive from leaning-negative.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.