Xcel Energy (XEL)
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
$75.72-0.81%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XEL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 31 industry peers
XEL — director transition
Dated 2026-07-29
Director — Peter Carter: Election of Peter Carter as a new director and appointment to specific committees.
Why it matters: Sector revenue growth impacts Xcel's performance. A slowdown could affect earnings.
Worry ifSector revenue growth speeds up again, moving back toward highs above 5%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down, staying below 5%.
Why it matters: Rising operating costs can hurt profits. Watching trends helps check financial health.
Worry ifOperating costs rise more than 5% from one quarter to the next.
Less concerning ifOperating costs stay the same or drop from one quarter to the next.
Why it matters: Results from rate cases can greatly affect revenue and earnings.
Watch forA good regulatory decision on a rate case that boosts revenue.
Also watch forA bad regulatory decision on a rate case that lowers revenue.
Why it matters: This case outcome could greatly affect revenue growth and earnings.
Watch forApproval of the $190 million increase in the natural gas rate case.
Also watch forDenial or delay of the natural gas rate case increase.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$75 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $192 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,150 loss on $10,000 · 11.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Approval would support revenue growth and align with Xcel's priority to increase revenue through rate cases.
Supportive ifRegulators approved the $356 million rate case in Colorado. They also approved the $175 million rate case in New Mexico.
Worry ifRegulators denied or delayed both rate cases.
Why it matters: Higher financing costs could hurt margins and profits.
Worry ifFinancing costs reported below $372 million in Q2.
Less concerning ifFinancing costs reported above $372 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Reaffirming EPS guidance shows that management believes in their financial performance. This helps set what investors expect.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers the ongoing EPS guidance below $4.04 for 2026.
Why it matters: Increasing revenue from rate cases supports financial health and growth. It's key for future investments.
Supportive ifXcel Energy reports good results from rate cases. This leads to more revenue.
Worry ifRate cases do not bring the expected revenue increases or they get delayed.
Why it matters: This deal helps with how money is spent. It may affect future funding and growth.
Watch forXcel Energy shares results from the stock distribution deal.
Also watch forNo news or results are shared from the equity distribution deal.
Why it matters: Sales growth is key for revenue and reflects demand for Xcel's services.
Supportive ifQ2 electric sales growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 electric sales growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Reaffirming EPS guidance shows confidence in earnings stability and growth. It can affect investor trust.
Supportive ifXcel Energy reaffirms its ongoing EPS guidance of $4.04 to $4.16 for 2026.
Worry ifXcel Energy revises its EPS guidance down from the current range.
Why it matters: New agreements can boost revenue and help Xcel grow in energy services.
Supportive ifThey announced new deals for data centers. These deals are with important customers.
Worry ifNo new data center agreements announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Winning rate cases can increase revenue and help earnings grow. Losing cases may hurt financial performance.
Supportive ifAt least one regulatory rate case was approved. It seeks to raise revenue by $190 million.
Worry ifDenial of all regulatory rate cases filed in 2026.