XOMA ROYALTY CORPORATION (XOMA)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$40.170.00%
Close 2026-07-14 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XOMA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 56.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 399 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XOMA — officer departure
Dated 2026-07-14
Jack L. Wyszomierski, Heather L. Franklin, Natasha Hernday, Owen Hughes, Barbara Kosacz, Joseph M. Limber, Matthew Perry: Multiple directors resigned as part of a Merger Agreement.
Why it matters: The acquisition affects XOMA's future and stockholder value. It could change business direction.
Supportive ifThe acquisition is now complete. All shares were exchanged for $39.00 each.
Worry ifThe acquisition does not close or has big delays beyond the expected time.
Why it matters: The CVR shows possible future payments from ongoing lawsuits. This affects stockholder value.
Supportive ifXOMA stockholders receive the CVR as promised on the record date.
Worry ifThe CVR distribution is delayed or canceled.
Why it matters: Confirming the EPS guidance of $8.50-$9.50 is important for checking profit after the merger.
Supportive ifManagement confirms EPS guidance remains at $8.50-$9.50 in Q3.
Worry ifManagement cuts EPS guidance to below $8.50.
Why it matters: A strategic partnership could help XOMA grow and improve its market position. More details will show how it can help.
Supportive ifXOMA will share more details on the partnership. This shows strong teamwork and possible revenue growth.
Worry ifNo new details are shared, or the partnership may not be effective.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$60 on $10,000 · ±0.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $475 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,237 loss on $10,000 · 42.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The CVR payments might give more value to shareholders after the merger.
Supportive ifThe first CVR payment to shareholders will be announced after the merger is done.
Worry ifNo news about CVR payments or bad news in the Janssen lawsuit.
Why it matters: Stockholder feelings show how well the merger is received and its effect on future growth.
Watch forPositive stockholder feelings are shown by a rising share price or good analyst reports.
Also watch forNegative feelings are shown by a falling share price or analyst downgrades.
Why it matters: Changes in revenue guidance show the financial health of the combined company. This affects investor trust.
Supportive ifLigand raises revenue guidance above the current range of $270 million to $310 million.
Worry ifLigand lowers its revenue guidance below the current range. This shows possible problems.
Why it matters: This guidance shows management's hopes for profit and growth.
Supportive ifManagement says adjusted EPS guidance will stay at $8.50 to $9.50 in future updates.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance drops below $8.50. This shows possible earnings issues.
Why it matters: EPS guidance impacts how much investors trust the combined company’s profits and growth.
Supportive ifLigand raises adjusted EPS guidance to $8.50-$9.50 for 2026.
Worry ifEPS guidance is lowered to below $8.00. This signals possible financial problems.
Why it matters: The litigation outcome could affect the value of the contingent value rights (CVRs) for stockholders.
Watch forFavorable ruling in the Janssen litigation leads to payments from the CVR trust.
Also watch forAn unfavorable ruling means no payments from the CVR trust. This affects stockholder value.
Why it matters: The CVR could provide additional value from ongoing litigation. It impacts stockholder returns.
Supportive ifCVRs are distributed to stockholders as planned on the effective date of the merger.
Worry ifCVR distribution is late or canceled. This changes what stockholders expect.
Why it matters: The merger is key for XOMA's growth and stability. It could reshape its future.
Supportive ifThe merger will close and all shares will be redeemed by July 14, 2026.
Worry ifThe merger fails to close or faces significant delays beyond the expected date.
Why it matters: The merger with Ligand is key for XOMA's growth and stability. It will affect future revenue and operations.
Supportive ifThe acquisition closes on time. There are no extra regulatory problems.
Worry ifThe acquisition has delays. It may fail to close due to regulatory or shareholder issues.
Why it matters: The acquisition marks a major shift for XOMA, affecting its stock and future strategy. It could unlock new growth opportunities.
Supportive ifThe merger is completed and XOMA stockholders receive $39.00 per share in cash.
Worry ifThe merger fails to close or is delayed beyond the expected date.
Why it matters: Management recently raised revenue guidance. More updates could show growth trends or problems.
Watch forManagement raises revenue guidance to more than $250 million for 2026.
Also watch forManagement lowers revenue guidance to less than $225 million for 2026.