XPO, Inc. (XPO)
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$188.06-1.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XPO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 28.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XPO — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-27
Director — Mr. Michael Kneeland: Appointment of a new director to the Board.
Why it matters: Q3 operating cash flow was $415 million, while management has named faster free cash flow growth as a priority. A lower cash flow figure could slow debt paydown and capital returns.
Supportive ifQ4 cash from operations exceeds $415 million.
Worry ifQ4 cash from operating activities is less than $415 million.
Why it matters: The ratio fell to 80.1% in Q3 as yield, volume, and cost gains lifted earnings. A lower reading would show that those gains continued.
Supportive ifQ4 adjusted North American LTL ratio is below 80.1%. It improved from a year ago.
Worry ifQ4 adjusted operating ratio is above 80.1%. It did not improve from a year ago.
Why it matters: Q3 yield excluding fuel rose 3.6%, and shipments per day rose 5.8%. A sharp slowdown would weaken the case that profitable share gains are lifting sales.
Worry ifQ4 yield excluding fuel is below 3.6% growth year over year, or shipments per day falls below 5.8% growth.
Less concerning ifQ4 yield excluding fuel stays at or above 3.6% growth, and shipments per day stays at or above 5.8% growth.
Why it matters: Management kept this 2026 spending range in its Q1 and Q2 updates. The full-year figure will show whether investment stayed within the stated plan.
Watch forXPO reports 2026 gross capital spending within the $500 million to $600 million range.
Also watch forXPO reports 2026 gross capital spending below $500 million or above $600 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$125 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $378 loss on $10,000 · 3.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,417 loss on $10,000 · 24.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.