XPO, Inc. (XPO)
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$193.10+4.49%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XPO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 32.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
XPO — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-27
Director — Mr. Michael Kneeland: Appointment of a new director to the Board.
Why it matters: Better performance in this segment could boost overall profits. It has hurt earnings, and recovery would show better operations.
Supportive ifThe European Transportation segment made money in Q3.
Worry ifThe European Transportation segment had more losses in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can shift company strategy. This could affect XPO's growth plans.
Watch forNew leaders bring a clear plan for growth and better operations.
Also watch forNew leaders can create uncertainty about the company's plans.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows good financial management. This can increase investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income rises above $120M in Q2. This shows strong management.
Worry ifNet income falls below $80M in Q2, raising concerns about financial strategy.
Why it matters: Revenue growth over 7% shows strong demand and good pricing.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue growth exceeds 7% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth is below 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $425 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,908 loss on $10,000 · 19.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sustained tonnage growth signals strong demand in the North American LTL market. This supports XPO's revenue growth and margin expansion.
Supportive ifAugust LTL tonnage per day growth reported above 3.5% year over year.
Worry ifAugust LTL tonnage per day growth falls below 3.5% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong EBITDA growth shows XPO is working well and managing costs effectively.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA growth exceeds 25% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA growth is less than 25% year over year.
Why it matters: Cash flow is vital for funding operations and growth. A drop below this level may raise concerns about financial health.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains above $250 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations falls below $250 million.
Why it matters: Cash flow from operations is crucial for funding growth. A decline could signal operational issues or increased capital needs.
Worry ifCash flow from operations below $250 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations above $250 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A better operating ratio means better cost control. It also shows more profit.
Supportive ifLTL adjusted operating ratio is good when it is below 83.9%.
Worry ifLTL adjusted operating ratio is bad when it is above 83.9%.
Why it matters: Strong free cash flow helps XPO with its spending plans and keeps it financially healthy.
Supportive ifFree cash flow generation exceeds $300 million in Q3.
Worry ifFree cash flow generation falls below $300 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted operating income shows XPO can make more money and control costs.
Supportive ifQ3 operating income in North American LTL segment goes up by over 30% from last year.
Worry ifQ3 operating income in North American LTL segment rises by less than 30% from last year.
Why it matters: A lower damage claims ratio means better service. It also shows more efficient operations.
Supportive ifLTL damage claims ratio remains below 0.2% for two consecutive months.
Worry ifDamage claims ratio rises above 0.2%.