Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.91-0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XPOF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XPOF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On August 6, 2026, Xponential Fitness, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilitie…
Why it matters: Hitting this revenue target shows a recovery from the big drop in Q1.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue meets or exceeds $60.7 million, showing improvement from Q1.
Worry ifIf Q2 revenue is below $60.7 million, it shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow shows better financial health. It also means more efficiency.
Supportive ifCash from operations turns positive in Q2, up from negative $21.7 million.
Worry ifIf cash from operations stays negative, it shows ongoing financial strain.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change the company’s path and results. This is true after a COO leaves.
Watch forThe new President shared good news. There are changes in strategy.
Also watch forThere were bad updates. Problems continue after the leadership change.
Why it matters: The new President's leadership may change how the company performs.
Watch forThe new President will share positive plans within 3 months.
Also watch forNo major changes in strategy or performance have been reported.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$203 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $479 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,267 loss on $10,000 · 52.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this target is important. It helps rebuild trust with investors after revenue drops.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 revenue guidance within the range of $250M-$260M.
Worry ifManagement revises revenue guidance down again from the $250M-$260M range.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue shows problems in the business. It confirms management's lower revenue guidance.
Worry ifQ3 revenue fell more than 19% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue declines less than 19% year-over-year or shows growth.
Why it matters: The review results could lead to big changes in the company.
Watch forThe company announces a new partnership or purchase from the review.
Also watch forIf no big changes are announced, it shows a lack of useful insights.
Why it matters: The COO leaving may change how the company operates and grows.
Worry ifManagement has a clear plan for the COO's departure and its effects.
Less concerning ifNo clear plan or updates are provided regarding the COO's departure.
Why it matters: Her leadership could enhance franchisee performance and overall brand health.
Supportive ifFranchisees give good feedback about the support and resources they get from her.
Worry ifFranchisee complaints about support or performance are on the rise.
Why it matters: Better same store sales show the business is recovering. It can attract more customers and help recent declines.
Watch forSame store sales improve from a decline of 6.8% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forSame store sales decline further from a drop of 6.8% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Management's revenue target for 2026 was revised down to $250M-$260M. This shows concern about growth.
Worry ifManagement says Q3 revenue will be below $250 million.
Less concerning ifManagement says Q3 revenue will be above $260 million.
Why it matters: Same store sales fell 6.8% in Q2. Improvement signals recovery in customer demand.
Supportive ifSame store sales grow year-over-year in Q3.
Worry ifSame store sales decline further in Q3.
Why it matters: Management aims to open 150 new studios in 2026. Meeting this target shows growth potential.
Supportive ifCompany opens 150 new studios by year-end 2026.
Worry ifNew studio openings fall below 125 by year-end 2026.