Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.53-0.44%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XPOF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
XPOF — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On November 5, 2026, Xponential Fitness, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Item 2.02 (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the lia…
Why it matters: The board says its review is ongoing, and it adopted a rights plan after a large stake was built. A public outcome would clarify the board's next step.
Watch forThe board announces a sale, merger, or other concrete plan from its review.
Also watch forThe board ends the review without a deal or other concrete plan.
Why it matters: Same-store sales fell in both Q1 and Q2. A smaller drop would show that studio sales are stabilizing.
Supportive ifQ3 North America same-store sales fall less than 6.8% year over year, or turn positive.
Worry ifQ3 North America same-store sales fall 6.8% or more year over year.
Why it matters: The company cut its opening goal from 150–170 to about 150. The final count will show whether studio growth met the lower goal.
Worry ifThe company reports fewer than 150 net new studio openings for 2026.
Less concerning ifThe company reports at least 150 net new studio openings for 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue fell 13% in Q2, and the company cut its full-year revenue range. A rise from Q2 could mark a turn in the decline.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue is above $66.0 million and year-over-year revenue decline is smaller than 13%.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is $66.0 million or less, or the year-over-year decline is 13% or worse.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $512 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,944 loss on $10,000 · 59.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.