EXPION360 INC (XPON)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.39-8.38%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XPON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -86.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -24.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers
XPON — private placement
Dated 2026-10-23
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amendment and Restatement of Private Placement Original Private Placement Transaction As previously reported, on August 21, 2026, Expion Energy, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with the purchasers identified on the signature pages thereto (the “Purchasers”) pursuant to which the Company issued and sold to the Purchasers (i) 8% Convertible Debentures Due August 21, 2029 in the aggregate pri…
Why it matters: The company said its first next-generation battery would launch in the second half of 2026. A launch would test its product plan and margin goals.
Supportive ifBy December 31, the company says its next-generation battery is ready to sell. It has VHC heating, Bluetooth, and CANBus features.
Worry ifBy December 31, the company has not announced a launch, or says the launch is delayed beyond 2026.
Why it matters: The company has shifted toward a two-platform energy plan and raised money through convertible debentures. A named deal and its funding terms would show the plan taking shape.
Watch forA filing names an oil and gas asset or project, states the purchase price, and sets out how the deal will be funded.
Also watch forA filing shows new convertible debt or preferred shares. By the next earnings report, it names no asset, project, or funding plan.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin reached 32.4% after the company dropped low-margin accessory sales. A sharp fall would weaken evidence that the new product mix can earn more.
Watch forThe next earnings report shows gross margin at 30% or higher, with sales from core battery products.
Also watch forThe next earnings report shows gross margin below 25%.
Why it matters: Cash fell to $1.5 million by June 30, while operations used $2.6 million in the first half. Lower cash use would ease pressure to raise more funds.
Watch forThe next earnings report shows operating cash use below $1.3 million for the quarter and cash above $1.5 million.
Also watch forThe next earnings report shows operating cash use at or above $1.3 million, or cash below $1.5 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$457 on $10,000 · ±4.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $996 loss on $10,000 · 10.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,854 loss on $10,000 · 78.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.