Reading XRAY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track XRAY free→
XRAY
Dentsply SironaNASDAQHealth CareMedical Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$10.09-0.49%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is not assessable since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 65% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern suggests potential issues due to weak financials or fragile earnings quality. The read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Instruments & Supplies
- Market cap
- $2.10B
- Employees
- 14,000
- IPO date
- 1995-05-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $10.09. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$28.55consensus
Range $18.77 – $29.03
vs price: -65% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$27.72consensus
Range $21.62 – $33.55
vs price: -64% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $10 XRAY trades at 7× p/e, below its 20× p/e peer median. Our $29 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
7.1x
peer 20.0x · own history 13.4x
Premium
0.4x peer
0.5x its own history
Growth the price needs
-65%
our forecast 0%
Our fair value
$28.55
range $18.77 – $29.03
WhyPeer anchor overstates the discount
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — value-trap risk12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 65% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 0%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
56th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.43x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -4.4% / 30d, n=16for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.36 → $0.35 (-4.4% / 30d). 2 raised, 11 cut, 16 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 24% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target -6.6% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in (~0.5 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$167.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$412.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,125.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on August 6
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company is improving or facing more challenges.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for XRAY yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ISRG, MDLN, and BDX keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting XRAY and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If XRAY raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for XRAY and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If XRAY cuts guidance on the next call (currently REAFFIRMED as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like ISRG, MDLN, and BDX start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping XRAY and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-112d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On June 1, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. (the “Company”) appointed John C. Fortson as the Company’s Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, effective as of July 20, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Fortson, age 58, currently serves as the President and Chief Financial Officer of Kymera International (…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+1.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.