Chiron Real Estate, Inc. (XRN)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.96+1.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XRN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XRN — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-17
Chief Administrative Officer — Danica Holley: Danica Holley transitioned from Chief Operating Officer to Chief Administrative Officer.
Why it matters: Funds from operations (FFO) is key for REITs. A stable or rising FFO indicates strong operational performance.
Supportive ifFFO per share shows improvement or stabilizes above $0.88 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifFFO per share declines below $0.88 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on capital use will show how well the company spends its new money.
Watch forManagement will announce new investments or purchases. They raised $100 million for this.
Also watch forNo new investments or purchases are announced. This follows the preferred stock issuance.
Why it matters: Issuing Series C Preferred Stock can give needed money for growth and stability.
Supportive ifIssuance of Series C Preferred Stock is completed with $100 million gross proceeds.
Worry ifThe issuance does not meet the expected proceeds or faces significant delays.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show Chiron's financial health and how well it operates. A big miss could change how investors feel.
Watch forQ2 earnings show a profit or improvement from the previous quarter.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows a larger loss than in Q1 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $278 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,021 loss on $10,000 · 20.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The lease situation with White Rock could impact revenue stability and cash flow.
Worry ifWhite Rock affirms its lease and continues timely rent payments.
Less concerning ifWhite Rock fails to affirm its lease or misses rent payments.
Why it matters: How Chiron uses the money from preferred stock will affect growth and finances.
Watch forChiron will share plans for new investments or acquisitions. This will use $100 million from preferred stock.
Also watch forChiron does not use the capital well, which leads to slow growth.
Why it matters: Maintaining guidance is key for investor confidence. It reflects the company's financial health.
Worry ifCore FFO guidance remains steady or improves.
Less concerning ifCore FFO guidance is lowered or missed expectations.
Why it matters: Higher occupancy rates signal strong demand for the new senior housing properties. This supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe Landing occupancy reaches 96% or higher by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe Landing occupancy stays below 90% by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A return to higher revenue growth would signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal shows growth progress. It can also increase the value of the portfolio.
Supportive ifThe Landing Alexandria deal is done for $130 million.
Worry ifThe acquisition faces delays or is not completed as planned.
Why it matters: Finishing this acquisition would help grow the portfolio. It fits with company goals.
Supportive ifThe Pinnacle acquisition closes in Q4 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe Pinnacle acquisition is delayed beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: More people are living at The Riviera. This shows a need for new senior housing.
Supportive ifThe Riviera's occupancy rate exceeds 30% by the end of September 2026.
Worry ifThe Riviera's occupancy is below 30% at the end of September 2026.
Why it matters: Strong net income growth shows Chiron's good use of capital and better operations.
Supportive ifNet income growth exceeds 10% compared to Q2 2026 results.
Worry ifNet income growth is less than or equal to 10% compared to Q2 2026 results.
Why it matters: Closing this sale would give more capital for reinvestment and prove Chiron's strategy.
Supportive ifThe Beaumont Surgical Hospital sale closes by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifThe Beaumont Surgical Hospital sale does not close by the end of Q4 2026.