22ND CENTURY GROUP INC (XXII)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.45+7.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesTobaccoSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · XXII
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -82.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -34.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
XXII — M&A activity — Termination
Dated 2026-07-02
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On July 1, 2026, 22 nd Century Group, Inc. (the “Company”) received a 180 day termination notice from Smoker Friendly International, LLC (“SF”) in connection with the Master Services Agreement dated January 1, 2025 including all addendums, as amended (the “Agreement”). Upon the expiration of the 180 day termination period, the Company will no longer manufacture cigarette and cigar products for SF. The termination was submitted pursuant to the te…
Why it matters: A smaller operating loss shows better cost management. It may lead to more profit.
Supportive ifOperating loss decreases to less than $2.5 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifOperating loss increases beyond $3.5 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Achieving this target would enhance market presence and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifThe company plans to reach 5,000 retail outlets by December 2026.
Worry ifRetail outlet count remains below 3,000 by December 2026.
Why it matters: News about FDA talks can affect support and market plans.
Watch forManagement shares good news about FDA talks in Q3.
Also watch forManagement reports no progress or negative feedback from FDA in Q3.
Why it matters: This ending could change production and sales. It may affect revenue and market share.
Worry ifThe company reports a big drop in revenue or production because of the ending.
Less concerning ifThe company keeps or grows revenue and production even after the ending.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$395 on $10,000 · ±4.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,743 loss on $10,000 · 17.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,962 loss on $10,000 · 99.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in VLN revenues shows the market accepts the product. This could lead to more profit.
Supportive ifVLN cigarette net revenues exceed $0.03 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifVLN cigarette net revenues remain at or below $0.03 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Finishing this could make the company's finances stronger and more stable.
Supportive ifThe company says it has completed the warrant inducement offering. It had good financial results.
Worry ifThe company does not finish the offering or shows bad financial results.
Why it matters: Higher operating costs may show bad cost control. This can hurt the company's finances.
Worry ifOperating costs were over $3.5 million in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating costs stayed at or below $3.0 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in VLN product sales shows that consumers are buying. This helps the company's long-term plan.
Supportive ifVLN product revenue exceeds $0.1 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifVLN product revenue remains below $0.01 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show strong market acceptance and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifVLN products will be in about 5,000 stores by the end of 2026.
Worry ifVLN products will be in fewer than 4,000 stores by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Growth shows strong demand for VLN products. This can increase sales.
Supportive ifSame-store sales growth of 10% per month continues for three consecutive months.
Worry ifSame-store sales growth drops below 5% for three consecutive months.
Why it matters: Better margins mean more profit and good cost control.
Supportive ifGross margin turns positive in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margin remains negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Good news can improve market position and help product growth.
Supportive ifManagement shares news of new FDA approvals or good talks.
Worry ifNo news or bad updates about FDA talks in the next quarter.