Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-09-30 · fmp
CBDMD INC (YCBD)
AMEXHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.39-4.43%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for YCBD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capital allocation supports financial stability | A supporting condition in CBDMD INC's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or improve capital allocation strategy. | Under Pressure | Capital allocation worsens or creates financial stress next 4 quarters | Qualitative: 19.9% equity dilution + debt assumption Twinlab acquisition uses 19.9% equity and debt assumption; lease extended; stock down 28.2% over 63 days. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-09-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 18, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative, loss-making business with high risk and weak recent financial performance. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: the acquisition adds a broader consumer wellness platform, but evidence of successful execution is still limited.
The valuation model describes YCBD as cheap versus peers, but confidence in that view is low and the expectations gap is negative. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to unusually fragile expectations.
Near term, results remain vulnerable: the company is loss-making, recent performance is weak, and the next report carries elevated miss risk for a smaller company in a high-miss-rate industry. Over the multi-year view, the Twinlab brands are expected to increase revenue by about 40% to roughly $30 million in trailing twelve-month revenue as of June 2026, while new financial obligations and a warehouse lease extension add execution demands.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued weakening in jobs data could add pressure through recession concerns. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from healthcare peers such as TEVA, HLN, and ZTS would support the sector backdrop. The key company-specific question is whether the acquisition can broaden the platform and support stronger performance while management handles its new obligations.
Over the next one to three years, YCBD’s thesis depends on turning acquisition-led expansion into better business performance; current evidence remains weak and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating income improves toward break-even |
| A primary condition in CBDMD INC's published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows from -$800,784 in 2026-Q2 toward zero. |
| Broken |
| Operating loss worsens or stays below -$800,000 next 4 quarters |
Operating income: $-1.13M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows from -$800,784 in 2026-Q2 toward zero. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026-1,130,477 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows about 13% to ~$22 million | CBDMD grows revenue about 13% next year to ~$22 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below ~$19.5 million (about 7% growth) in FY26 | Revenue: $5.554M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$22 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 20265,553,738 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.07 → $-0.19 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.07 | $23,261,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.37 | $22,918,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.19 | $28,595,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.