Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD (YMM)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$9.01+3.56%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.66 → 5.70 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for YMM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS to grow to at least $5.80 in FY27 | A primary condition in FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >= $5.80. | Improving | EPS falls below $4.92 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 19, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
YMM is best described here as a growth-sensitive technology investment, not a clearly established durable compounder or turnaround. The thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial-performance history, and overall confidence is low.
The snapshot gives no valuation level or evidence about what the market expects, so whether YMM is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed. Priced-in fragility is low, with no fragility gates triggered, but that does not resolve the valuation question.
The evidence does not establish a near-term operating trend or management execution record. Near-term miss risk is described as low, though the snapshot notes that peers have recently missed and YMM has a deep miss in its history; this supports caution, not a price call.
The multi-year view could improve if rate cuts begin from the current 3.88% level and major technology companies stabilize with in-line results and steady guidance. It faces a headwind if GDP growth slows materially from 2.1%, especially below 2%, because the evidence describes the sector as growth-sensitive.
For the next one to three years, YMM’s thesis is unresolved: favorable rate and sector conditions could help, while weaker growth and elevated risk remain concerns. Limited company-specific evidence also leaves valuation and operating progress unclear. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD's published investment case. The stated target is Maintain or increase strategic investments. |
| Intact |
| Loss of key partnerships or withdrawal of strategic investors |
Qualitative: Strategic investment maintained/increased New strategic stake by First Beijing Investment; strong earnings beats reinforce confidence. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth to meet or exceed $13 billion in FY27 | A primary condition in FULL TRUCK ALLIANCE CO LTD's published investment case. The stated target is >= $13.05 billion. | Intact | Revenue falls below $11.6 billion in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.73 → $5.70 · observed estimates
$13.02B → $13.63B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.73 | $13,019,916,647 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.73 | $13,019,916,647 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.73 | $13,019,916,647 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.74 | $13,032,275,372 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.74 | $13,032,275,372 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.74 | $13,032,275,372 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.74 | $13,032,275,372 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.74 | $13,038,454,734 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.74 | $13,038,454,734 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.74 | $13,038,454,734 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.82 | $13,059,900,350 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.82 | $13,059,900,350 | 13 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.75 | $13,058,758,354 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.74 | $13,394,433,155 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.78 | $13,546,786,067 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.78 | $13,632,100,359 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.78 | $13,632,100,359 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.78 | $13,632,100,359 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.79 | $13,641,277,752 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.79 | $13,640,360,013 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.79 | $13,640,360,013 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.79 | $13,640,360,013 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.79 | $13,643,113,231 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.79 | $13,643,113,231 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.79 | $13,643,113,231 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.78 | $13,622,922,965 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.79 | $13,654,126,103 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.74 | $13,644,986,517 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.74 | $13,644,986,517 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.74 | $13,644,986,517 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.74 | $13,644,986,517 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.74 | $13,644,986,517 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.75 | $13,662,423,613 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.75 | $13,665,176,838 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.75 | $13,667,012,322 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.75 | $13,669,765,548 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.75 | $13,681,696,192 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.75 | $13,681,696,192 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.75 | $13,681,696,192 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.75 | $13,670,683,290 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.75 | $13,670,683,290 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.75 | $13,663,341,354 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.75 | $13,663,341,354 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.75 | $13,673,436,515 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.75 | $13,673,436,515 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.68 | $13,512,248,032 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.68 | $13,509,506,191 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.68 | $13,517,069,780 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.67 | $13,493,650,367 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.68 | $13,500,297,972 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.68 | $13,503,962,974 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.68 | $13,503,962,974 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.68 | $13,514,998,256 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.66 | $13,556,578,387 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.67 | $13,566,095,193 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.67 | $13,582,132,403 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.66 | $13,559,317,340 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.66 | $13,561,461,297 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.66 | $13,561,461,297 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.66 | $13,561,407,361 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.66 | $13,561,407,361 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.67 | $13,577,797,970 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.67 | $13,575,066,202 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.67 | $13,572,334,434 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.67 | $13,571,423,844 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.67 | $13,571,423,844 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.67 | $13,569,453,725 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.68 | $13,592,044,681 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.68 | $13,601,369,526 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.68 | $13,594,828,638 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.68 | $13,595,639,737 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.68 | $13,595,639,737 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.68 | $13,599,280,288 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.68 | $13,599,280,288 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.69 | $13,611,112,081 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.69 | $13,611,112,081 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.69 | $13,622,943,873 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.69 | $13,627,494,563 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.69 | $13,622,943,873 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.69 | $13,622,943,873 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.69 | $13,622,943,873 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.69 | $13,622,943,873 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.70 | $13,634,775,666 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.70 | $13,650,248,010 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.70 | $13,643,877,045 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.71 | $13,660,473,071 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.71 | $13,660,473,071 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.71 | $13,660,473,071 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.71 | $13,680,496,417 | 7 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.70 | $13,633,168,507 | 7 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.