Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$59.08+23.70%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.20 → 2.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 2 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 2 to 2; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for YOU yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow raised to at least $465 million in 2026 | Free cash flow guidance was raised to $465 million for 2026. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $400 million in FY26 | Free cash flow: $188.982M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $465 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026188,982,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth investment with improving profitability, rather than a turnaround: revenue, operating income, and margins have strengthened. The long-term thesis is intact, although confidence has eased from high to medium and risk remains elevated.
The evidence tags expectations as justified and fragility as low, meaning it does not flag a concentrated valuation vulnerability. The expectations gap is negative, but the snapshot does not explain what the market assumes or provide peer valuation comparisons, so the degree of optimism priced in is unclear.
Near-term results show strong execution: revenue rose 26.6% year over year in the latest comparison, and operating margin expanded from about 19.4% to 29.9%. Third-quarter guidance points to continued revenue growth, while membership is expanding and CLEAR+ subscriber progress is mixed. Near-term risk is rated quiet, but a guidance cut after the recent increase could damage management credibility; leadership transitions add some uncertainty.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on sustaining revenue growth and margin gains while converting membership growth into continued subscriber expansion. A reversal of raised guidance is the main company-specific downside scenario. Fed rate cuts or stabilization among large technology peers could support the sector backdrop, though the snapshot does not establish when either might occur.
The multi-year view remains intact, backed by strong recent operating results, but elevated risk and reduced confidence call for attention to guidance credibility and continued execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit margins are strong, with operating income at 24.5% margin and net income margin at 22.3%. |
| Improving |
| net income margin falls below 18% over next 4 quarters |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income margin near 24.5% in Q1 2026 | Profit margins are strong, with operating income at 24.5% margin and net income margin at 22.3%. | Intact | operating margin falls below 20% over next 4 quarters | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth reaching at least $1.08 billion in FY26 | A primary condition in Clear Secure, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.08 billion. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $1.0 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $292.85M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.08 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026292,850,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.55 → $2.20 · observed estimates
$1.25B → $1.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.55 | $1,251,735,417 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.59 | $1,237,082,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.59 | $1,237,082,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.59 | $1,237,082,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.55 | $1,251,735,417 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.55 | $1,251,735,417 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.59 | $1,237,082,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.03 | $1,251,735,417 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.03 | $1,251,735,417 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.59 | $1,237,082,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.59 | $1,237,082,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.03 | $1,251,735,417 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.59 | $1,237,082,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.03 | $1,251,735,417 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.50 | $1,259,096,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.20 | $1,269,329,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.20 | $1,269,329,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.50 | $1,259,096,600 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.20 | $1,269,329,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.20 | $1,269,329,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.20 | $1,269,329,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.20 | $1,269,329,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.20 | $1,269,329,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.20 | $1,269,329,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.20 | $1,269,329,333 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.20 | $1,258,195,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.20 | $1,258,195,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.20 | $1,258,195,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.20 | $1,258,195,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.20 | $1,258,195,200 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.20 | $1,269,888,252 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,586 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.20 | $1,271,221,602 | 2 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.