Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Zentalis Pharmaceuticals Inc (ZNTL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.71-2.84%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ZNTL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance ASPENOVA Phase 3 trial for azenosertib | It is advancing the ASPENOVA Phase 3 trial for azenosertib. | Improving | Trial progress stalls or is delayed significantly in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• ASPENOVA Phase 3 First Patient Dosed: In May 2026, announced the first patient was dosed in the Phase 3 ASPENOVA confirmatory trial designed to satisfy FDA requirements for U.S. full approval and to support approval in major ex-U.S. markets.” “The trial is currently enrolling.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative clinical-stage biotechnology, not a business with established earnings: it is loss-making and carries high risk. The long-term thesis is on watch, with management advancing key trials but recent financial performance well below its industry cohort.
The valuation evidence points to ZNTL being cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The snapshot gives little direct evidence about what investors expect from future trial results, so the expectations gap is unclear.
Near term, earnings-miss risk is elevated, and an August 2026 earnings miss adds to the weak recent record. Cash fell from $211.8 million in the first quarter of 2026 to $174.6 million in the second, while operating expenses rose, as trial costs continued. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on completing DENALI Part 2 and advancing the ASPENOVA confirmatory trial; management has kept these priorities in focus, but their status remains mixed.
A favorable path depends on completing DENALI Part 2 enrollment and delivering its topline readout by year-end 2026 or the first half of 2027, while continuing ASPENOVA and combination trials. Near-term downside risks include a guidance cut and weaker employment data, while strength in major healthcare peers could support sector momentum. These factors do not resolve the central uncertainty: whether trial progress can support a durable business.
Over the next one to three years, ZNTL’s long-term thesis hinges on clinical execution and trial evidence, against a backdrop of losses, rising trial costs, and high risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Optimize azenosertib dosing in DENALI trial | The company chose the best dose for azenosertib in DENALI. | Intact | Dose optimization is reversed or questioned in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete DENALI Part 2 enrollment by year-end 2026 | Zentalis aims to finish DENALI Part 2 enrollment by end of 2026. | Intact | Enrollment not completed by end of 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• DENALI Part 2 Enrollment and Integrated Topline Readout: Enrollment in DENALI Parts 2a and 2b is complete.” “The Company expects to provide a topline readout in 1H 2027 to allow for data maturation post full enrollment.” Delivery assessment Nov 5, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.63 → $-1.88 · observed estimates
$0.02B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.53 | $19,275,220 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.53 | $19,275,220 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.53 | $19,275,220 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.53 | $19,275,220 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.53 | $19,275,220 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.53 | $19,275,220 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.53 | $19,275,220 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.53 | $19,275,220 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.53 | $19,275,220 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.53 | $19,275,220 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.53 | $19,275,220 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.79 | $16,378,020 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.63 | $22,111,458 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-2.01 | $8,944,111 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-2.01 | $8,944,111 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-2.01 | $8,944,111 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-2.01 | $8,944,111 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-2.01 | $8,944,111 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-2.01 | $8,944,111 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-2.01 | $8,944,111 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-2.01 | $8,944,111 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-2.01 | $8,944,111 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.98 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.95 | $11,856,551 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.95 | $10,778,683 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.93 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.93 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.93 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.93 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.93 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.93 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.93 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.93 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.93 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.90 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.88 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.88 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.88 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.88 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.88 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.88 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-1.88 | $9,351,410 | 8 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.