Fed / Policy RatesQuarterlyIQ Brief

Snapshot of the current Fed funds stance, policy path probabilities, and near-term rate risk.

Last release: 2026-06-17

Period: 2026-07-06 · Source: Fed – FOMC · Frequency: daily

HEADLINE METRIC

3.63%

Effective Fed funds rateNeutral-ish

Fed rate holds steady while Treasury yields stay above it

Underlying Momentum

Target band3.50%–3.75%

Last meetingJun 17

Last rate moveDec 11 (-25 bps)

Next implied rate3.67%

The Fed's setting looks steady right now, while Treasury yields still point to somewhat tighter borrowing costs than a month ago.

Risk

Risk: LOW

Why LOW:

If Treasury yields keep rising while the Fed stays put, borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business debt could stay high. If yields keep easing instead, that could signal slower growth expectations.

Snapshot

Markets and models see the Fed most likely to hold at the next meeting (Jul 29): Hold 72%, Cut 6%, Hike 23%.

Trend

Primary trend view for the effective Fed funds rate and its target band.

Step changes mark policy decisions: the blue line is the effective rate and band lines show the target corridor.

What changed

When the policy rate is near its expected path, rate uncertainty tends to be lower.

Drivers

Policy stance

Metric	Value
Stance	Neutral-ish Gap to neutral: -0.28 ppts
Real policy rate	0.22%
Est. real neutral (r*)	0.50%
Expected next-meeting rate	3.67%

Inflation

Metric	Value	Signal
Core PCE (3m SAAR)	3.52% Fed target reference: 2.00%	Trending Up
Core PCE (YoY)	3.41% Fed target reference: 2.00%	Trending Up

Labor

Metric	Value	Signal
Unemployment	4.20%	Sideways
Payroll growth (3m avg)	+111k / month (3m avg)	Trending Up

Financial conditions

Metric	Value	Signal
10Y real yield	2.18%	Trending Up

Secondary context

Metric	Value
Headline CPI (YoY)	4.17%
Real GDP (QoQ SAAR)	2.10%

Fed Decision Outlook

Primary view: next meeting cut/hold/hike odds and what would change the decision.

Decision probabilities

Meeting-by-meeting cut/hold/hike odds from FOMC probability views.

Next meeting: Jul 29

Cut

Hold

72%

Hike

23%

Decision quality

Top-class accuracy: 92.86%
Brier score: 0.052
Log loss: 0.278
Meetings scored: 140

Base case decision

Hold (72%)

Top two split: 72% vs 23%

Next 3 meetings, most likely call

Jul 29Hold 72%
Sep 16Hold 64%
Oct 28Hold 72%

Key decision drivers now

Core PCE 3m SAAR: 3.52% (Trending Up)
Unemployment: 4.20% (Sideways)
10Y real yield: 2.18% (Trending Up)

What could change the decision

The Fed's next target range decision: The target range guides short-term borrowing costs across the economy. It affects savings yields, credit cards, business loans, and market expectations.
The effective Fed funds rate relative to the 3.5% to 3.75% target range: The effective rate shows where the market rate is landing inside the Fed's range. On 2026-07-06, it was 3.63%, which is near the middle.
Whether the Fed keeps describing the path ahead with low confidence: The context says confidence is unknown. When the outlook is unclear, markets and loan rates can react more sharply to new data.

Forward Outlook

Forward-looking signals from the Fed path consensus and model scorecard.

Consensus & scorecard

Market-implied near-term Fed path, confidence band proxy, and model metadata.

Confidence: Medium

Forecast path (implied policy rate)

Jul 29: 3.67%
Sep 16: 3.68%
Oct 28: 3.67%

Confidence band (90% CI proxy, ± ppts)

±1.50

>Model quality (click to expand/collapse)

Confidence signal: Unknown
CI level: 90.00%
CI width (ppts): 1.50
Next meeting: Jul 29

Formal backtest-quality metrics are not yet provided for the Fed path panel; confidence and interval fields are sourced from the rates consensus/model views.

Calendar

Recent releases

Fed Policy Decision

Jun 17, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Apr 29, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Mar 18, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Jan 28, 2026 • 7:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Dec 10, 2025 • 7:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Upcoming releases

Fed Policy Decision

Jul 29, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Sep 16, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Oct 28, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Dec 9, 2026 • 7:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Loading Fed interest rates…

Drivers

Policy stance

Metric	Value
Stance	Neutral-ish Gap to neutral: -0.28 ppts
Real policy rate	0.22%
Est. real neutral (r*)	0.50%
Expected next-meeting rate	3.67%

Inflation

Metric	Value	Signal
Core PCE (3m SAAR)	3.52% Fed target reference: 2.00%	Trending Up
Core PCE (YoY)	3.41% Fed target reference: 2.00%	Trending Up

Labor

Metric	Value	Signal
Unemployment	4.20%	Sideways
Payroll growth (3m avg)	+111k / month (3m avg)	Trending Up

Financial conditions

Metric	Value	Signal
10Y real yield	2.18%	Trending Up

Secondary context

Metric	Value
Headline CPI (YoY)	4.17%
Real GDP (QoQ SAAR)	2.10%

Fed Decision Outlook

Primary view: next meeting cut/hold/hike odds and what would change the decision.

Decision probabilities

Meeting-by-meeting cut/hold/hike odds from FOMC probability views.

Next meeting: Jul 29

Cut

Hold

72%

Hike

23%

Decision quality

Top-class accuracy: 92.86%
Brier score: 0.052
Log loss: 0.278
Meetings scored: 140

Base case decision

Hold (72%)

Top two split: 72% vs 23%

Next 3 meetings, most likely call

Jul 29Hold 72%
Sep 16Hold 64%
Oct 28Hold 72%

Key decision drivers now

Core PCE 3m SAAR: 3.52% (Trending Up)
Unemployment: 4.20% (Sideways)
10Y real yield: 2.18% (Trending Up)

What could change the decision

The Fed's next target range decision: The target range guides short-term borrowing costs across the economy. It affects savings yields, credit cards, business loans, and market expectations.
The effective Fed funds rate relative to the 3.5% to 3.75% target range: The effective rate shows where the market rate is landing inside the Fed's range. On 2026-07-06, it was 3.63%, which is near the middle.
Whether the Fed keeps describing the path ahead with low confidence: The context says confidence is unknown. When the outlook is unclear, markets and loan rates can react more sharply to new data.

Forward Outlook

Forward-looking signals from the Fed path consensus and model scorecard.

Consensus & scorecard

Market-implied near-term Fed path, confidence band proxy, and model metadata.

Confidence: Medium

Forecast path (implied policy rate)

Jul 29: 3.67%
Sep 16: 3.68%
Oct 28: 3.67%

Confidence band (90% CI proxy, ± ppts)

±1.50

>Model quality (click to expand/collapse)

Confidence signal: Unknown
CI level: 90.00%
CI width (ppts): 1.50
Next meeting: Jul 29

Formal backtest-quality metrics are not yet provided for the Fed path panel; confidence and interval fields are sourced from the rates consensus/model views.

Calendar

Recent releases

Fed Policy Decision

Jun 17, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Apr 29, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Mar 18, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Jan 28, 2026 • 7:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Dec 10, 2025 • 7:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Upcoming releases

Fed Policy Decision

Jul 29, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Sep 16, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Oct 28, 2026 • 6:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC

Fed Policy Decision

Dec 9, 2026 • 7:00 PM UTC• FED_FOMC