Snapshot of the current Fed funds stance, policy path probabilities, and near-term rate risk.
Period: 2026-05-07 · Source: Fed – FOMC · Frequency: daily
Primary trend view for the effective Fed funds rate and its target band.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Stance | Supportive Gap to neutral: -0.07 ppts |
| Real policy rate | 0.43% |
| Est. real neutral (r*) | 0.50% |
| Expected next-meeting rate | 3.64% |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Core PCE (3m SAAR) | 4.4% Fed target reference: 2.0% | Trending Up |
| Core PCE (YoY) | 3.2% Fed target reference: 2.0% | Trending Up |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment | 4.3% | Sideways |
| Payroll growth (3m avg) | +48k / month (3m avg) | Sideways |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y real yield | 1.94% | Sideways |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Headline CPI (YoY) | 3.3% |
| Real GDP (QoQ SAAR) | 2.0% |
Primary view: next meeting cut/hold/hike odds and what would change the decision.
Meeting-by-meeting cut/hold/hike odds from FOMC probability views.
Forward-looking signals from the Fed path consensus and model scorecard.
Market-implied near-term Fed path, confidence band proxy, and model metadata.
Formal backtest-quality metrics are not yet provided for the Fed path panel; confidence and interval fields are sourced from the rates consensus/model views.