Yield CurveQuarterlyIQ Brief

Snapshot of key Treasury spreads, inversion depth and duration, and near-term curve risk.

Last Value Date: Nov 3, 2026

Period: Nov 3, 2026 · Source: US Treasury · Frequency: Daily

HEADLINE METRIC

34bps 10Y-2Y

Long-term Treasury rates stayed above short-term rates

The day barely changed, but the bigger picture still shows longer-term bond rates well above short-term ones.

Underlying Momentum

3m10y spread+74 bps

Curve statusNORMAL

Days inverted (10Y-2Y)0

13-week trend (10Y-2Y)Flat

The line showing interest rates for US government bonds of different lengths is staying normal, with the biggest gap still between very short and longer rates.

Risk

Risk: LOW

Why LOW:

Long-term rates near 4.45% to 4.99% can keep mortgages and other borrowing costs high. If short-term rates rise faster than long-term rates again, this normal shape could narrow and send a weaker growth signal.

Snapshot

The 10Y-2Y yield spread is 34 bps, and the 3M-10Y spread is 74 bps.

Trend

Primary trend view for the 10Y-2Y and 3m10y curve spreads.

History

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Why it matters

The shape of the yield curve can signal how investors see future growth and recession risk.

Drivers

Latest period: 2026-11-03

Driver	Level	30d change	Risk contribution	Inversion streak
10Y-3M Treasury yield spread (bps)	74 bps	-5 bps	-74 bps	No
10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread (bps)	34 bps	+14 bps	-34 bps	No
U.S. 2-year Treasury yield (%)	4.61%	-0.15 ppts	0 bps	No
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (%)	4.95%	-0.01 ppts	0 bps	No

Forward Outlook

Consensus path for the 10Y-2Y spread and model quality signals.

Forecast path (10Y-2Y spread)

2026-10-29: 37 bps
2026-11-27: 36 bps
2026-12-28: 35 bps

Confidence band (90% CI · high)

±15 bps

>Model quality (click to expand/collapse)

Primary forecast: 37 bps
Confidence band (90% CI): ±15 bps
MAE (bps, ex-NONE): 2.64
Directional accuracy (ex-NONE): 98%
Backtest window: 2021-06-30 to 2026-10-29
Backtest observations: 65

What to Watch Next

Indicator	Why it matters	If improving	If weakening
10Y-2Y spread	This gap shows how investors view future economic growth. A positive gap is normal, but a shrinking one can be a warning.	The gap stays positive or grows wider. This suggests confidence in steady economic growth.	The gap shrinks or turns negative. This can signal that investors expect the economy to slow down.
10-Year Treasury Yield	This rate sets the baseline for many loans, including mortgages. It directly affects how much you pay to borrow money.	The rate stays stable or drops slightly. This keeps borrowing costs manageable for households.	The rate rises significantly. This makes mortgages and other long-term loans more expensive.
3-Month Treasury Yield	This short-term rate reflects the current cost of money. It influences the interest on credit cards and savings accounts.	The rate remains steady. This provides predictability for short-term financial planning.	The rate spikes upward. This increases the cost of carrying credit card balances and variable debt.

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