Snapshot of key Treasury spreads, inversion depth and duration, and near-term curve risk.
Period: May 7, 2026 · Source: US Treasury · Frequency: Daily
Primary trend view for the 10Y-2Y and 3m10y curve spreads.
| Driver | Level | 30d change | Risk contribution | Inversion streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-3M Treasury yield spread (bps) | 72 bps | +3 bps | -72 bps | No |
| 10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread (bps) | 49 bps | +3 bps | -49 bps | No |
| U.S. 2-year Treasury yield (%) | 3.92% | -0.04 ppts | 0 bps | No |
| U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (%) | 4.41% | -0.01 ppts | 0 bps | No |
Consensus path for the 10Y-2Y spread and model quality signals.
| Indicator | Why it matters | If improving | If weakening |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Y-2Y spread | This shows whether longer Treasury rates stay above shorter ones. On 2026-05-07, the gap is 49 bps, one hundredth of a percentage point (25 bps = 0.25%), which is a normal reading. | The gap stays above zero or widens a bit. That keeps the usual rate order in place. | The gap shrinks toward zero or turns negative. That means short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual. |
| 3M-10Y spread | This compares very short Treasury rates with longer ones. On 2026-05-07, the gap is 72 bps, which also shows a normal curve. | The gap remains positive. That suggests the bond market is not giving its classic upside-down warning. | The gap falls to zero or below. That would be a more cautious signal about future growth. |
| curve_status | The current status is normal. That means the yield curve, the line showing interest rates for US government bonds of different lengths, has the usual upward shape. | The status stays normal over time. That would show the market keeps a more typical view of growth and rates. | The status changes to inverted, meaning short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual. That would raise caution. |
| days_inverted_2s10s | This tracks how long the gap between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury rate stays upside-down. Right now it is 0 days. | The count stays at 0. That means this warning sign is not building. | The count starts rising. A longer upside-down period would deserve more attention. |