Yield CurveQuarterlyIQ Brief

Snapshot of key Treasury spreads, inversion depth and duration, and near-term curve risk.

Last Value Date: Sep 3, 2026

Period: Sep 3, 2026 · Source: US Treasury · Frequency: Daily

HEADLINE METRIC

43bps 10Y-2Y

Long-term Treasury rates stayed above short-term rates

The day barely changed, but the bigger picture still shows longer-term bond rates well above short-term ones.

Underlying Momentum

3m10y spread+88 bps

Curve statusNORMAL

Days inverted (10Y-2Y)0

13-week trend (10Y-2Y)Flat

The line showing interest rates for US government bonds of different lengths is staying normal, with the biggest gap still between very short and longer rates.

Risk

Risk: LOW

Why LOW:

Long-term rates near 4.45% to 4.99% can keep mortgages and other borrowing costs high. If short-term rates rise faster than long-term rates again, this normal shape could narrow and send a weaker growth signal.

Snapshot

The 10Y-2Y yield spread is 43 bps, and the 3M-10Y spread is 88 bps.

Trend

Primary trend view for the 10Y-2Y and 3m10y curve spreads.

History

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Why it matters

The shape of the yield curve can signal how investors see future growth and recession risk.

Drivers

Latest period: 2026-09-03

Driver	Level	30d change	Risk contribution	Inversion streak
10Y-3M Treasury yield spread (bps)	88 bps	+12 bps	-88 bps	No
10Y-2Y Treasury yield spread (bps)	43 bps	+9 bps	-43 bps	No
U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (%)	4.77%	+0.06 ppts	0 bps	No
U.S. 2-year Treasury yield (%)	4.34%	-0.03 ppts	0 bps	No

Forward Outlook

Consensus path for the 10Y-2Y spread and model quality signals.

Forecast path (10Y-2Y spread)

2026-09-03: 39 bps
2026-10-02: 39 bps
2026-11-02: 40 bps

Confidence band (90% CI · high)

±15 bps

>Model quality (click to expand/collapse)

Primary forecast: 39 bps
Confidence band (90% CI): ±15 bps
MAE (bps, ex-NONE): 2.60
Directional accuracy (ex-NONE): 98%
Backtest window: 2021-05-28 to 2026-09-03
Backtest observations: 65

What to Watch Next

Indicator	Why it matters	If improving	If weakening
10Y-2Y spread	This shows whether longer-term Treasury rates stay above shorter-term rates in the usual way. On 2026-09-03, the gap is 0.43%, which is positive but not very large.	The gap stays above zero or widens. That means markets are not moving back to the unusual upside-down pattern.	The gap falls toward zero or below zero. That means short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual.
3M-10Y spread	This compares very short-term rates with 10-year rates. On 2026-09-03, the gap is 0.88%, which is a more normal reading than an inversion.	The gap stays clearly positive. That suggests less bond-market concern about a near-term slowdown.	The gap shrinks sharply or turns negative. That would signal rising worry about weaker growth ahead.
Curve status	The current status is normal, which means the main Treasury gaps are positive. That is usually a calmer sign than an inverted curve.	The status stays normal. That means this market signal is not flashing the warning tied to inversions.	The status changes to inverted. That means short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which is unusual.
Days inverted (2s/10s)	This tracks whether the gap between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury rate stays upside-down over time. On 2026-09-03, it is 0 days, so there is no current inversion streak.	The count stays at 0. That means the curve is not building a new inversion period.	The count starts rising. That means the unusual upside-down pattern has returned and is lasting longer.

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