Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.89-20.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.55 → 5.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AAOI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin of 29%-30% in Q2 2026 | Gross margin is targeted near 29.5%, showing margin improvement. | Broken | Gross margin falls below 29% in Q2 2026 | Gross margin: 27.72% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 29%-30%. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 202627.723242 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not yet a durable compounder, because it remains loss-making overall and recent financial performance is weak. The multi-year view is on watch: capacity, revenue, and non-GAAP profitability are progressing, but management execution has been volatile.
The valuation is above peers, with a 3.34 premium, while the expectations gap is negative and the model confidence is low. The snapshot tags expectations as justified and fragility as low, but valuation has recently fallen by 11.9 points; optionality, or the possibility of future growth, is a key part of the valuation case.
Near-term results could continue improving if management delivers its revenue and profitability guidance, building on higher second-quarter revenue and a return to non-GAAP profit. Capacity expansion is on track, but the longer-term payoff depends on continued execution, while consecutive earnings misses and erratic surprises remain risks.
The main swing factor is whether AAOI keeps expanding 800G and 1.6Tb capacity while sustaining sequential growth and positive earnings. A guidance cut would weaken the thesis; easier rates or stabilization among technology peers could provide a more supportive sector backdrop, though neither resolves company-specific execution risk.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AAOI’s long-term thesis rests on converting capacity growth into sustained revenue and profitability. Progress is visible, but weak results, volatile execution, and a premium to peers leave the case uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is No material insider stock sales. |
| Under Pressure |
| Additional large insider stock sales occur |
SVP sold $800.3k shares (Jun 2026) + $600M ATM offering (Aug-Oct 2026) SVP sold $800k in June; company executed $600M ATM offering in Aug-Oct. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Non-GAAP net income between -$2.5M and $2.8M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is -$2.5M to $2.8M. | Under Pressure | Net income remains below -$2.5M in Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches $180M-$198M in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is $180M-$198M. | Under Pressure | Revenue falls below $180M in Q2 2026 | Revenue: $191.922M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $180M-$198M. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 6, 2026191,922,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.77 → $5.55 · observed estimates
$2.57B → $2.96B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.77 | $2,574,139,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.77 | $2,571,714,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.77 | $2,571,714,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.77 | $2,571,714,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.73 | $2,801,711,860 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.60 | $2,663,336,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.60 | $2,663,336,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.73 | $2,801,711,860 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.73 | $2,801,711,860 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.73 | $2,801,711,860 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.73 | $2,801,711,860 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.73 | $2,801,711,860 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.73 | $2,801,711,860 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.73 | $2,801,711,860 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,200 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.55 | $2,961,229,180 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.