Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$46.89-20.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAOI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -49.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 32.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 81.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AAOI — credit agreement
Dated 2026-11-04
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On October 30, 2026, Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a Credit Agreement (the “New Credit Facility”) among the Company, the lenders party thereto and East West Bank, as administrative agent for the secured parties. The New Credit Facility replaces the Prior Credit Facility (as defined below). The New Credit Facility provides the Company with $30 million in revolving commitments and $170 million in initial term loan commitme…
Why it matters: The 29% floor is management's stated range. Falling below it would point to weaker margins during the growth ramp.
Worry ifQ3 2026 non-GAAP gross margin is below 29%.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 non-GAAP gross margin is at least 29%.
Why it matters: Management guided to $255 million to $290 million. Reaching the low end would show that the rapid sales ramp continued.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue is at least $255 million, the bottom of management's range.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is below $255 million.
Why it matters: AOI moved to non-GAAP profit in Q2 after a loss in Q1. Meeting its Q3 target would extend that progress.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 non-GAAP net income is at least $10.1 million.
Worry ifQ3 2026 non-GAAP net income is below $10.1 million or is a loss.
Why it matters: The lease covers a large factory site in Ningbo. A clear start date and added output would show how it supports the capacity ramp.
Watch forA company filing or results update says the Ningbo site is running. It also states how much production capacity was added.
Also watch forA company update reports delays or no production at the site. It also reports no added capacity by the next annual report.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$500 on $10,000 · ±5.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,394 loss on $10,000 · 13.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,343 loss on $10,000 · 73.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.