Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$105.53+5.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAOI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -29.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 32.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AAOI — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation
Dated 2026-09-01
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information contained in
Why it matters: This range shows if the company is on track for growth. Meeting this target is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue reported in Q2 2026 falls within the range of $180M to $198M.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue is below $180M.
Why it matters: This range shows the company is getting closer to making money. It also affects how investors feel.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP net income reported in Q2 2026 is between -$2.5M and $2.8M.
Worry ifNon-GAAP net income in Q2 2026 is worse than -$2.5M.
Why it matters: Strong demand for 800G products is crucial for revenue growth. Success here indicates market position strength.
Supportive ifThe company announced it shipped a lot of 800G products to big customers.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the ramp of 800G product shipments.
Why it matters: This margin shows good cost control. It helps the company make more money in the future.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP gross margin reported in Q2 2026 is between 29% and 30%.
Worry ifNon-GAAP gross margin in Q2 2026 is below 29%.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding guidance shows strong demand and effective capacity ramp-up. It confirms ongoing growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue reported at or above $255 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue reported below $255 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this target means the company is getting closer to making money. It shows better financial health.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP net income reported at or above $10.1 million.
Worry ifNon-GAAP net income was less than $10.1 million.
Why it matters: Hitting this target confirms the company can meet rising demand for its products. It supports future revenue growth.
Supportive ifProduction capacity is at or above 650,000 units per month.
Worry ifProduction capacity is less than 650,000 units each month.
Why it matters: Keeping this margin range shows good cost control. It means financial stability.
Watch forNon-GAAP gross margin reported between 29% and 30.5%.
Also watch forNon-GAAP gross margin reported below 29%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$620 on $10,000 · ±6.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,394 loss on $10,000 · 13.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,570 loss on $10,000 · 65.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.