AAON (AAON)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$79.40+1.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAON
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $79 AAON trades at 41× p/e — 2.2× the 19× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $36 fair value is low-confidence here. The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $120 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| graham number | 12M | $22.89 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $37.17 | 11.6 | 3.22 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $52.79 | 16.6 | 3.18 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $42.17 | 1.8 | 23.08 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality. Capped at elevated by the Mania regime.
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 1337% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 16.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $0.47/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $69.13 |
| 35.8 |
| 1.93 |
| TTM |
| high |
| residual income | 12M | $14.13 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $36.84 | 19.1 | 1.93 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $75.71 | 16.6 | 4.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $74.45 | 1.8 | 40.75 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $163.26 | 35.8 | 4.56 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $100.12 | 16.6 | 6.03 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $98.47 | 1.8 | 53.89 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $215.92 | 35.8 | 6.03 | Analyst | medium |