AAON (AAON)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$79.40+1.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
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Put AAON beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Building Products is in recovery. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar broken — Maintain gross margin near 27-28% in FY26: FY26 GM guidance 25.5% vs 27.0% target.
View ThesisRevenue growth is accelerating — up about 54% over the past year.
View GrowthRanks in the weakest quality tier of its industry — roughly the bottom 44%, softest on free-cash-flow margins.
View QualityMiddle-of-the-pack management execution.
View ManagementExpectations look high — the market is pricing in about 120% growth a year, above the roughly 28% analysts expect, leaving little room for error.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 50% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskAAON's growth depends on maintaining strong demand in the data center cooling market. Revenue grew 101% year over year, and the latest quarter beat expectations. It trades at 41× P/E versus a peer median of 19×, indicating the market prices in more growth than forecast. The primary risk is the need to maintain gross margin near 27-28%, as guidance for FY26 is 25.5%. Peer multiples imply a price about 120% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis). This read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. AAON is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 5 analysts currently covering AAON (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Building Products — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put AAON next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Threatens: Increase share buyback program
Guidance raised but shares fell, indicating market skepticism.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Strong sales growth forecast supports backlog conversion.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Strong Q2 results indicate effective backlog conversion.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Strengthening backlog from data center buildout aligns with growth.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Backlog growth supports throughput and growth objectives.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Increased demand aligns with growth objectives.
Advances: Drive throughput and convert backlog
Increased backlog supports growth and throughput objectives.
Positive outlook on recovery plans supports valuation.