Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
AAON (AAON)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$54.42-6.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.54 → 3.60 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for AAON yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share | The company keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.10 per share. | Intact | dividend falls below $0.10 per share quarterly | Dividend per share: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.10 per share quarterly dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 20260.1 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth and capacity-expansion story, with recent financial performance strong and management making progress on converting backlog. The long-term thesis is intact, but execution and risk remain elevated, and management’s record is described as volatile.
AAON is expensive versus peers, with a reported premium of 1.83 and an expectations gap of 0.37. The evidence flags the valuation as unjustified, but does not describe a broader combination of expensive valuation, weak fundamentals, and turbulence that would make the setup especially fragile.
Near-term, revenue rose 54.3% year over year in 2026-Q1 and backlog increased 107.4%, supporting management’s focus on throughput and backlog conversion. Capacity investment is progressing, but gross margin declined to 25.1% from 26.8% as ramp costs and unabsorbed fixed costs weighed; recent earnings were positive, though earnings surprises have been erratic and the sector backdrop is a headwind.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on converting the large backlog and improving capacity utilization without lasting margin pressure. A reversal of recently raised guidance would damage management credibility, while continued strong results and higher guidance from industrial peers could support the sector backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
The 1-3 year thesis remains intact on strong recent performance and backlog growth, but execution, margin recovery, and sector conditions matter against an expensive valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99.1 AAON Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend TULSA, Okla., August 13, 2026 – AAON, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAON), a leader in high-performing, energy-efficient HVAC solutions that bring long-term value to customers and owners, today announced that its Board of Directors has declared the Company’s next regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share (or $0.40 annually), payable on September 25, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on September 4, 2026.”
Maintain gross margin near 27-28% in FY26 | A primary condition in AAON's published investment case. The stated target is >= 27% gross margin in FY26. | Broken | gross margin falls below 27% in FY26 | Gross margin: 24.32% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 27% gross margin in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202624.321665 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capital expenditures totaled $52.9 million, primarily reflecting continued investments in incremental capacity to support future growth.” “Increased production from the Company's new Memphis facility played a key role by expanding capacity and driving higher sales volumes.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Grow revenue to at least $2.07 billion in FY26 and convert backlog | The backlog doubled to $2.13 billion, showing strong demand. | Intact | revenue falls below $2.07 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $626.976M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.07 billion revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 2026626,976,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Backlog March 31, 2026 December 31, 2025 March 31, 2025 (in thousands) AAON-branded products $ 509,806 $ 526,350 $ 403,863 BASX-branded products 1,619,649 1,302,145 623,006 $ 2,129,455 $ 1,828,495 $ 1,026,869 Total backlog increased 107.4% year-over-year to $2.13 billion, and increased 16.5% sequentially.” “First Quarter 2026 Results Net sales for the first quarter of 2026 increased 54.3% to $496.9 million, from $322.1 million in the first quarter of 2025.” Revenue was $496.936 million in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.49 → $3.60 · observed estimates
$2.42B → $2.71B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.49 | $2,415,340,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.49 | $2,415,340,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.46 | $2,433,783,333 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.46 | $2,433,783,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.40 | $2,416,980,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.53 | $2,673,300,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.53 | $2,673,300,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.46 | $2,433,783,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.46 | $2,433,783,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.46 | $2,433,783,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.46 | $2,433,783,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.46 | $2,433,783,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.46 | $2,433,783,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.57 | $2,671,466,667 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.54 | $2,678,514,286 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.60 | $2,708,085,714 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.60 | $2,708,085,714 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.60 | $2,708,085,714 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.60 | $2,708,085,714 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.60 | $2,708,085,714 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.60 | $2,708,085,714 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.60 | $2,708,085,714 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.60 | $2,714,042,857 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.