AAON (AAON)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$79.40+1.82%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 120.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 27.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 92.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
AAON — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-28
Regulation FD Disclosure In connection with the previously announced transition to operate under the trade name The Aaon Group, the Company has updated its investor presentation. A copy of the investor presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. All statements at the conference (including Exhibit 99.2), other than historical financial information, may be deemed “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of…
Why it matters: The news about the buyback program shows that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifThey announced share repurchases of at least $10 million by Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo news or share buybacks will be reported by Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The rate at which backlog converts to revenue shows how well AAON is meeting demand.
Supportive ifThe backlog conversion rate is much better. This leads to Q3 revenue growth over 60%.
Worry ifBacklog conversion rate declines, leading to Q3 revenue growth below 55%.
Why it matters: A drop in backlog growth may mean less demand in the data center market.
Worry ifTotal backlog growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifTotal backlog growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: New board members may improve governance and decisions. This can help long-term growth.
Supportive ifPositive changes or plans announced within six months of new board members.
Worry ifNo new plans or negative news after the board appointments.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$193 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $625 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,970 loss on $10,000 · 49.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher material costs can hurt margins. This may affect profits.
Worry ifIf raw material prices stay steady or drop, margins will stay stable.
Less concerning ifIf raw material prices rise a lot, margins will shrink.
Why it matters: The dividend shows AAON's promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a quarterly cash dividend of at least $0.10 per share.
Worry ifThe Board does not declare a quarterly cash dividend for the next period.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend policy can show how management views cash flow and profits.
Watch forManagement says the quarterly dividend will rise above $0.10 per share.
Also watch forManagement says they will cut or pause the quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: A slowdown in earnings growth may show problems with backlog and margins.
Worry ifQ2 earnings growth reported below 40% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings growth meets or exceeds 40% year over year.
Why it matters: A steady dividend payout shows the company is financially healthy. It shows management cares.
Watch forThe company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share in Q3.
Also watch forThe company suspends or reduces the dividend payout in Q3.
Why it matters: A strong backlog shows ongoing demand and helps future revenue growth. Investors will watch backlog trends closely.
Supportive ifTotal backlog is above $2.1 billion. This shows demand is still strong.
Worry ifBacklog drops below $2 billion. This suggests order intake is weakening.
Why it matters: The rate at which backlog converts to revenue shows how well AAON is managing demand. High conversion means strong sales growth.
Supportive ifBacklog conversion rate exceeds 50% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifBacklog conversion rate falls below 30% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Better gross margins mean improved cost management and efficiency. This can lead to more profits.
Supportive ifGross margin improves to at least 25% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifGross margin declines further below 24% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Updates on capacity expansion show how AAON is growing to meet demand. This impacts future sales and profits.
Watch forManagement says capacity use is over 75% in Q3 2026.
Also watch forManagement says capacity use is under 50% in Q3 2026.