AAON (AAON)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$54.42-6.58%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · AAON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 43.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 34.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 40 industry peers
AAON — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-28
Regulation FD Disclosure In connection with the previously announced transition to operate under the trade name The Aaon Group, the Company has updated its investor presentation. A copy of the investor presentation is furnished as Exhibit 99.2 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. All statements at the conference (including Exhibit 99.2), other than historical financial information, may be deemed “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of…
Why it matters: The event record flags a lawsuit but gives no claim details. A filing or company update can show its scope and status.
Watch forA court filing or AAON update says the case ended with no major payment or limits on the business.
Also watch forA court filing or AAON update says the case proceeds and seeks material damages or could limit AAON's business.
Why it matters: AAON has kept the quarterly payout at $0.10 per share. A lower or skipped payout would break that pattern.
Supportive ifThe board declares a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share or more.
Worry ifThe board declares less than $0.10 per share or does not declare a dividend for the next quarter.
Why it matters: BASX sales and orders draw on data center projects. A sharp backlog drop may point to slower awards or delivery timing.
Watch forBASX backlog stays above $1.4 billion and BASX sales rise year over year in the next report.
Also watch forBASX backlog falls below $1.4 billion, or BASX sales fall year over year in the next report.
Why it matters: AAON says higher output and better use of new plants can lift margins. The Q2 gross margin was 24.3%.
Supportive ifQ3 gross margin is at least 25%, with management citing higher plant use, better pricing, or lower costs.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 24.3%, or management says plant ramp costs and price-cost pressure remain high.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$180 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $699 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,068 loss on $10,000 · 60.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This tests whether AAON can turn its large backlog into sales as new capacity ramps. The sector backdrop is a headwind.
Supportive ifAAON reports FY26 sales growth of at least 55% and keeps its 55%-60% outlook.
Worry ifAAON reports sales growth below 55% or cuts its 55%-60% outlook.