Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ameris Bancorp (ABCB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$81.68-2.92%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.02 → 6.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ABCB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.20 per share | The bank keeps paying a $0.20 quarterly dividend. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.20 in 2026-Q1 | Dividend per share: $0.20 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.20 USD per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.2 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regional bank with a growth-and-execution thesis, rather than a turnaround story. The long-term thesis is intact, and recent momentum has improved, though the evidence snapshot rates confidence as medium.
Valuation is close to peers, with expectations broadly aligned with the business evidence. The expectations gap is modest, and there are no flagged signs of fragile pricing, so the setup appears justified rather than dependent on unusually high expectations.
Recent results are strong: the latest quarter included annualized loan growth of 3.1% and deposit growth of 5.6%, while the adjusted efficiency ratio improved to 49.15%. Profitable growth and share repurchases are on track, but expense discipline bears watching; near-term miss risk is described as low despite recent misses by the company and peers.
The multi-year view depends on ABCB continuing disciplined growth across the Southeast while sustaining efficiency gains. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on Financials; continued strong earnings and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ABCB’s thesis rests on steady growth and execution, with rate changes and guidance the main swing factors. Recent performance supports the thesis, but the evidence warrants medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Ameris Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=6.00 USD per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $6.00 in fiscal 2025 |
Diluted EPS: $0.77 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6.00 USD per share. The stored target says 2025-Q4; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 20260.77 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income increases to at least $140.7 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income rose to $140.7 million in Q1 2026. | Intact | Operating income falls below $140 million in Q1 2026 | Operating income: $66.049M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=140.7 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 7, 202666,049,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth stays above -2% next year | A primary condition in Ameris Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >-2% YoY. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below -2% in 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.11 → $6.98 · observed estimates
$1.36B → $1.33B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.11 | $1,364,336,800 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.11 | $1,364,436,800 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.11 | $1,364,436,800 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.06 | $1,358,496,800 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.06 | $1,358,496,800 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.03 | $1,353,918,000 | 7 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.03 | $1,353,850,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.03 | $1,354,467,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.03 | $1,354,467,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.03 | $1,354,467,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.03 | $1,354,467,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.03 | $1,354,467,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.03 | $1,354,467,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.03 | $1,354,467,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.03 | $1,354,467,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.03 | $1,354,467,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.02 | $1,353,667,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.02 | $1,353,667,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.02 | $1,353,667,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.02 | $1,353,667,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.02 | $1,353,667,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.02 | $1,353,667,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.02 | $1,353,667,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $7.03 | $1,353,667,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.03 | $1,353,667,400 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $7.03 | $1,353,573,050 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $7.02 | $1,350,632,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $7.02 | $1,350,632,667 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $7.03 | $1,346,316,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $7.03 | $1,346,316,000 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.98 | $1,337,139,233 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.98 | $1,337,139,233 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.98 | $1,337,139,233 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.98 | $1,337,139,233 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.98 | $1,337,139,233 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.98 | $1,337,139,233 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.98 | $1,334,589,233 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.98 | $1,334,589,233 | 6 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Jan 28, 2027
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.