Ameris Bancorp (ABCB)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$86.05+0.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ABCB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -4.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
ABCB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-23
and in Exhibit 99.1 attached to this Report is being furnished and shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of such section. Furthermore, such information shall not be deemed to be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document filed pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.
Why it matters: A higher efficiency ratio shows poor cost management. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifThe efficiency ratio is over 75%.
Less concerning ifThe efficiency ratio is under 75%.
Why it matters: A net income above this level would show continued strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifQ2 net income reported above $110 million.
Worry ifQ2 net income reported below $100 million.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding EPS of $1.63 would show strong earnings growth and support management's goal of $6.00 for the year.
Supportive ifQ3 EPS reported at or above $1.63 per diluted share.
Worry ifQ3 EPS reported below $1.63 per diluted share.
Why it matters: If the efficiency ratio worsens, costs will rise compared to income. This will hurt profits.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio was above 75% for Q3.
Less concerning ifEfficiency ratio stayed below 75% in Q3.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$83 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $186 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,385 loss on $10,000 · 13.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Good early results would support the expansion plan. This could help future growth.
Supportive ifEarly reports of loan or deposit growth from the Nashville market.
Worry ifNo measurable growth from the Nashville market within the next two quarters.
Why it matters: Share repurchases show the company believes in its value. It also shows a promise to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifThey announced share buybacks of more than $20 million.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: If operating income recovers, it shows better profits and efficiency. This would be good for the company.
Supportive ifOperating income is more than $100 million.
Worry ifOperating income is less than $100 million.
Why it matters: A drop greater than this may show problems in mortgage banking and services.
Worry ifNoninterest income reported down more than 10% in Q2.
Less concerning ifNoninterest income was stable or growing in Q2.
Why it matters: Loan growth is crucial for Ameris' revenue. A decline below this threshold could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifLoan growth reported at less than 5% annualized for Q3.
Less concerning ifLoan growth remains above 5% annualized in Q3.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, profits will fall. This will worry investors.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted net income reported at less than $100 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted net income remains above $100 million.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below this level may signal a slowdown in Ameris' performance. It could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 9.5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 9.5% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline in the net interest margin could signal pressure on profitability. This is key for banks like Ameris.
Worry ifQ2 net interest margin was below 3.85%.
Less concerning ifQ2 net interest margin remains at or above 3.85%.
Why it matters: A drop in operating income below $66 million signals weakening core business performance. This could affect future growth.
Worry ifOperating income is less than $66 million.
Less concerning ifOperating income is at or above $66 million.
Why it matters: If net charge-offs go up, it shows credit quality is getting worse. This could mean problems with loans.
Worry ifNet charge-offs are above 0.25%.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs are below 0.25%.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show management believes in the company's value. This can boost stock sentiment.
Supportive ifShare repurchases were over $75 million in Q2.
Worry ifShare repurchases were below $75 million in Q2.
Why it matters: A drop in net income would signal ongoing challenges after a recent earnings miss.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $50 million would confirm the negative trend.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income is over $50 million. This shows recovery from past problems.
Why it matters: Less share repurchases may show a change in how money is spent.
Worry ifShare repurchases under $20 million in Q3 would show a change in plans.
Less concerning ifShare repurchases are over $20 million. This shows a commitment to returning money.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income would show better financial health after a big drop.
Supportive ifOperating income over $100 million in Q3 would show a good trend.
Worry ifOperating income is under $100 million. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: The company keeps the dividend. This shows it cares about shareholders, even with earning issues.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend of $0.20 per share in Q3. This shows it is stable.
Worry ifA dividend cut below $0.20 per share shows possible financial trouble.