Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Asbury Automotive Group (ABG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$207.03-0.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
30.36 → 28.07 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 7 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 7; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ABG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operations stays near or above $223M | A supporting condition in Asbury Automotive Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $223 million. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $223 million next year | Cash from operations: $265.1M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $223 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 2026265,100,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ABG is a cyclical, value-oriented automotive retailer, meaning its results can move with broader economic conditions. The long-term thesis is intact, with technology rollout progress and early service gains, but recent earnings misses and weaker company momentum keep confidence moderate.
ABG is rated cheap versus peers, while valuation has risen recently and the model confidence is low. The priced-in assessment is justified, with low fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market’s assumptions remain a meaningful consideration.
Near term, recent earnings misses and a sharp decline in company momentum point to uneven performance, even though recent financial performance remains in the top half of its industry. Across the multi-year view, Tekion is fully rolled out, with early gains in parts and service gross profit in longer-tenured markets; used-vehicle profitability is less proven, despite sequential unit growth.
The favorable case depends partly on automotive retail peers continuing to report strong results and raise guidance, supporting sector momentum. The unfavorable case includes those peers weakening or GDP growth slowing materially from 2.1%, which could weigh more heavily on this growth-sensitive business. Sustained profitable growth in used vehicles and continued execution on technology and capital allocation are also important swing factors.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ABG’s long-term thesis remains intact but faces moderate risk, with execution progress offset by recent misses and weaker momentum. The main signals are sustained operating gains and the direction of sector and economic conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Asbury Automotive Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $727 million. |
| Intact |
| Gross profit falls below $727 million next year |
Gross profit: $731.5M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $727 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 2026731,500,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income stays near or above $194M | A primary condition in Asbury Automotive Group's published investment case. The stated target is >= $194 million. | Intact | Operating income falls below $194 million next year | Operating income: $206.6M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $194 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 2026206,600,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 3.4% next year | Analysts expect revenue growth of about 3.4% next year. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 3.4% in FY27 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$29.40 → $28.07 · observed estimates
$18.85B → $18.24B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $29.40 | $18,848,562,260 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $29.40 | $18,848,562,260 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $29.40 | $18,848,562,260 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $29.40 | $18,848,562,260 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $29.40 | $18,848,562,260 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $29.74 | $18,792,368,760 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $29.74 | $18,792,368,760 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $30.17 | $18,670,430,530 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $30.17 | $18,670,430,530 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $30.17 | $18,670,430,530 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $30.17 | $18,670,430,530 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $30.17 | $18,670,430,530 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $30.17 | $18,670,430,530 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $30.22 | $18,570,591,110 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $30.22 | $18,570,638,290 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $30.27 | $18,581,294,540 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $30.27 | $18,581,294,540 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $30.27 | $18,581,294,540 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $30.41 | $18,548,837,816 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $30.27 | $18,581,294,540 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $30.27 | $18,581,294,540 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-14 | $30.41 | $18,548,837,816 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $30.41 | $18,548,837,816 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $30.41 | $18,548,837,816 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $30.41 | $18,548,837,816 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $30.41 | $18,548,837,816 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $30.41 | $18,548,837,816 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $30.41 | $18,548,837,816 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $30.36 | $18,536,537,058 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $30.36 | $18,536,691,202 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $30.36 | $18,536,702,614 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $29.99 | $18,499,967,882 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $29.81 | $18,490,968,175 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $29.81 | $18,490,968,175 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $29.61 | $18,433,027,470 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $29.61 | $18,433,027,470 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $29.45 | $18,407,683,026 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $29.45 | $18,407,683,026 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $29.45 | $18,407,683,026 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $29.45 | $18,407,683,026 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $29.45 | $18,407,683,026 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $29.32 | $18,362,947,386 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $29.32 | $18,362,947,386 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $29.02 | $18,327,089,759 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $29.02 | $18,327,089,759 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $29.02 | $18,327,089,759 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $29.02 | $18,327,089,759 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $29.02 | $18,327,089,759 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $29.02 | $18,327,089,759 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $29.02 | $18,327,089,759 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $29.02 | $18,327,089,759 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $29.02 | $18,327,089,759 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $29.02 | $18,327,089,759 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $28.46 | $18,227,381,485 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $28.19 | $18,227,061,223 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $28.19 | $18,227,061,223 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $28.07 | $18,239,530,001 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $28.07 | $18,239,530,001 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $28.07 | $18,239,530,001 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $28.07 | $18,239,530,001 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $28.07 | $18,239,530,001 | 7 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.