Asbury Automotive Group (ABG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$217.26+0.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ABG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -28.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers
ABG — officer change
Dated 2026-08-31
Director — Jed Milstein: The filing confirms the end of Jed Milstein's employment relationship, which constitutes a departure, though the subsequent consulting agreement for an orderly transition mitigates the negative impact.
Why it matters: Management wants to improve profit margins. Recent results showed little change.
Supportive ifGross profit margin increases to at least 18% in Q2.
Worry ifGross profit margin falls below 17% in Q2.
Why it matters: Implementing the Tekion system is key for better operations. Good results would back management's plan.
Watch forQ2 results show better operations due to Tekion.
Also watch forQ2 results show no improvement or negative effects from Tekion.
Why it matters: EPS growth shows Asbury is making money. This can make investors trust Asbury more.
Supportive ifQ2 EPS exceeds $9.87 per diluted share.
Worry ifQ2 EPS falls below $8.00 per diluted share.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth shows the consumer sector is getting better. This leads to more sales.
Supportive ifAsbury reports positive revenue growth in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAsbury reports negative revenue growth in Q3 2026.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$144 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $303 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,154 loss on $10,000 · 31.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in net income means ongoing profit problems. It may show that efficiency efforts are not working.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted net income falls more than 20% year over year from $134 million in Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 adjusted net income declines less than 20% year over year or grows.
Why it matters: Less cash from operations means ongoing trouble in making cash.
Worry ifCash from operations in Q2 drops below $223 million.
Less concerning ifCash from operations in Q2 is over $223 million. This shows recovery.
Why it matters: Management cares about being efficient. This shows they are controlling costs well.
Supportive ifOperating income increases from $193.9 million in Q1 2026 to above $220 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income is below $193.9 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Good same-store revenue growth is key. It helps the business and builds investor trust.
Supportive ifSame-store revenue growth exceeds 0% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifSame-store revenue growth remains negative in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Getting more cash from operations is important. Recent results showed a small drop.
Watch forCash from operations exceeds $230 million in Q2.
Also watch forCash from operations falls below $220 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Same-store sales growth shows operational health. It also shows market demand.
Watch forSame-store sales growth is over 2% year over year. This shows strong demand.
Also watch forSame-store sales drop or stay flat. This suggests weak consumer demand.
Why it matters: A lower gross profit margin means the company is less efficient.
Worry ifGross profit margin drops below 17.2% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifGross profit margin stays the same or goes up above 17.2% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Frequent share buybacks show that the company uses its money well and has strong management.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $131 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $100 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing the Tekion system will improve operations and guest experience. It is a key part of Asbury's strategy.
Supportive ifManagement says the Tekion rollout will finish on time by fall 2026.
Worry ifThe rollout is delayed beyond fall 2026.