Asbury Automotive Group (ABG)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$207.03-0.89%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ABG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -32.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ABG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued an earnings release on October 27, 2026, announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report. The information furnished in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
Why it matters: Used vehicle retail revenue fell 6% year over year in Q3. Asbury named profitable used growth as a key goal.
Supportive ifA later quarter shows used vehicle retail revenue above the same quarter last year. It also shows used vehicle retail gross profit above $62 million.
Worry ifA later quarter shows used vehicle retail revenue still down from a year ago. Or, used vehicle retail gross profit is below $62 million.
Why it matters: Adjusted Q3 earnings per share fell 21% from a year earlier. The next results can show if that drop continues.
Watch forQ4 adjusted earnings per share are above the prior-year Q4 result.
Also watch forQ4 adjusted earnings per share are below the prior-year Q4 result.
Why it matters: Q3's SG&A share was lower than Q1's, but higher than Q2's. A lower share would show costs are staying in check.
Supportive ifReported SG&A is below 68.5% of gross profit in the next quarter.
Worry ifReported SG&A is 68.5% or more of gross profit in the next quarter.
Why it matters: All active stores now use Tekion. The next results can show if early service gains spread across the company.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, customer pay gross profit and parts and service gross profit both rise year over year.
Worry ifIn the next reported quarter, customer pay gross profit or parts and service gross profit falls year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$153 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $346 loss on $10,000 · 3.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,674 loss on $10,000 · 36.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.