Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$4.60 → $4.60 · observed estimates
ABM Industries, Inc. (ABM)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$53.67-1.94%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ABM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.29 per share | Dividend stays steady at $0.29 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.29 | Dividend per share: $0.29 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $0.29 quarterly dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 8, 20260.29 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-31 · fmp
$4.60 → $4.60 · observed estimates
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ABM is a steady-growth business thesis rather than a high-growth story. Its long-term thesis is intact, with 2026 revenue and earnings priorities on track, though execution quality is fragile and company momentum has weakened.
The evidence describes ABM as cheap versus peers, while the model has low confidence and shows a negative expectations gap. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility because the evidence points to weak execution quality but not a broader combination of high valuation and turbulence.
Near term, revenue rose 4.2% year over year in 2026-Q3, adjusted EPS guidance remained at $3.85 to $4.15, and its midpoint was raised. The dividend also remained steady. However, momentum fell sharply, earnings quality is fragile, and the snapshot notes recent misses, so guidance and execution remain important risks.
A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued delivery on the 4% to 5% revenue growth priority and the EPS range would support the multi-year thesis. Industrials bellwethers provide another signal: continued strong results could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it. The recent COO transition adds a management change to monitor, but the evidence gives no further detail on its effects.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ABM’s long-term thesis rests on sustaining recent revenue and earnings progress despite fragile execution quality and a headwind from its sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company maintains EPS guidance of $3.85 to $4.15. |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $3.85 for FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.84 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: $3.85 to $4.15 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 8, 20260.84 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The range is now $3.95 to $4.10, versus the previous range of $3.85 to $4.15, reflecting its third quarter performance and confidence in the Company’s ability to deliver a strong fourth quarter.” “N et income increased 19% to $49.7 million, or $0.84 per diluted share, compared to $41.8 million, or $0.67 per diluted share, in the prior year period.” Net income was $49.700 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain operating margin near 7.8% to 8.0% | Profit margin is expected near 8%. | Under Pressure | Operating margin falls below 7.5% in FY26 Q4 | Operating margin: 3.95% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 7.8% to 8.0% operating margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 8, 20263.948902 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve 4% to 5% total revenue growth in 2026 | A primary condition in ABM Industries, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is 4% to 5% YoY revenue growth. | Improving | YoY revenue growth falls below 4% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 4.19% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 4% to 5% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Sep 8, 20264.186151 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results Revenue increased 4.2% year over year to a record of $2.3 billion, including 2.1% organic growth and 2.1% growth from acquisitions.” “Outlook The Company's full year organic revenue growth outlook remains unchanged, with performance expected near the top end of the 3% to 4% range, and total revenue growth continues to be expected toward the top end of the 4% to 5% range.” Revenue was $2.317 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.80B → $9.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | $4.60 | $9,798,864,036 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.60 | $9,798,864,036 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.60 | $9,798,864,036 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.60 | $9,798,864,036 | 4 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 16, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.