Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.66-7.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ABR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend payout near $0.17 per share | A primary condition in Arbor Realty Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.17 per share quarterly. | Intact | quarterly dividend falls below $0.17 per share | Dividend per share: $0.17 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.17 per share quarterly. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 20260.17 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ABR is a higher-risk financial company whose long-term case depends on managing capital while maintaining lending activity. Its thesis state is intact, but the latest results weakened momentum and changed the signal from mildly favorable to mixed.
The evidence labels valuation as expensive, though it also describes ABR as cheap versus peers, so the relative valuation picture is mixed. Expectations are somewhat stretched, but there are no signs in the evidence of concentrated fragility.
Near term, the latest earnings miss and a 44% estimated miss probability point to meaningful execution risk. Revenue declined from the first to the third quarter, and the company reported a third-quarter net loss and suspended its dividend, despite completing a large securitization and continuing originations. Management’s focus on capital flexibility is clear, but progress on growth and capital preservation remains mixed.
The next call matters: a guidance cut would add to the recent weakness. Rate changes are another risk, since the evidence says rate cuts could weigh on ABR and financial companies. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum, while ABR’s own results will remain central to the thesis.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on ABR restoring steadier financial performance while preserving capital; the recent miss, loss, and dividend suspension make that path less certain. The evidence is mixed, with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Close securitization deals to raise at least $760 million | It raised $762.6 million by securitization to improve liquidity. | Improving | securitization falls below $760 million in a quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Repurchase at least $30 million of shares per quarter | A supporting condition in Arbor Realty Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= $30 million quarterly buybacks. | Intact | buybacks fall below $30 million per quarter | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Keep structured loan portfolio near $12 billion | A supporting condition in Arbor Realty Trust's published investment case. The stated target is >= $12 billion portfolio size. | Intact | portfolio size falls below $12 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.61 → $-0.13 · observed estimates
$0.22B → $0.35B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.61 | $219,237,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.61 | $219,237,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.61 | $219,237,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.61 | $219,237,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.61 | $219,237,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.61 | $219,237,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.61 | $464,587,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.61 | $219,237,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.61 | $464,587,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.60 | $227,550,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.60 | $227,550,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.60 | $227,550,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.58 | $227,450,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.58 | $227,450,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.58 | $227,450,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.53 | $221,050,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.53 | $221,050,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.53 | $221,050,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.53 | $221,050,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.53 | $221,050,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.53 | $221,050,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.58 | $477,267,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.58 | $477,267,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.58 | $477,267,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.58 | $477,267,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.58 | $477,267,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.58 | $477,267,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.58 | $477,267,075 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.58 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.53 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.53 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.53 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.53 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.53 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.53 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.53 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.53 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.53 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.53 | $449,546,719 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.47 | $436,692,052 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.47 | $436,692,052 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.47 | $436,692,052 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.47 | $436,692,052 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.47 | $436,692,052 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.47 | $436,692,052 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.47 | $436,692,052 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.47 | $436,692,052 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.47 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.26 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.26 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.26 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.26 | $421,158,478 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.13 | $347,504,080 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.