Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.66-7.26%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ABR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -80.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -57.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 23.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ABR — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 30, 2026, Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: The board suspended the common dividend to preserve cash and handle debt maturities. A restart would show less pressure; a continued pause would show capital remains tight.
Watch forThe board declares a new common dividend after the suspension.
Also watch forThe board keeps the common dividend suspended in its next dividend update.
Why it matters: Agency loans fell to $907 million in Q3 from $1.08 billion in Q2. A rebound would show more activity in Arbor's agency lending business.
Supportive ifQuarterly agency loans rise above $1.08 billion, the Q2 2026 level.
Worry ifQuarterly agency loans stay below $907 million, the Q3 2026 level.
Why it matters: Q3 runoff was $574 million, above $459 million of new structured loans. Another gap would shrink the portfolio and may reduce loan income.
Worry ifNext quarter, structured loans run off faster than new structured loans begin, as they did in Q3.
Less concerning ifNext quarter, new structured loans equal or exceed loans that run off.
Why it matters: Non-performing loans rose to $647.6 million in Q3 from $428.8 million in Q2. A further rise could bring more losses and lower loan income.
Worry ifQ4 non-performing loans top $647.6 million, or the loan loss allowance tops $210.1 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 non-performing loan balance falls below $647.6 million and the loan loss allowance stays at or below $210.1 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$178 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $575 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,138 loss on $10,000 · 81.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Arbor set aside $53 million for loan losses in Q3. Another large provision could deepen losses and add pressure to capital.
Worry ifThe next report shows a net provision for loan losses above $53 million.
Less concerning ifThe next report shows a provision below $53 million, or a net release of loan loss reserves.
Why it matters: An $825 million securitization added about $50 million of liquidity in Q3. Similar deals could help Arbor meet debt needs while it works through troubled loans.
Supportive ifArbor announces another loan deal backed by assets. It adds at least $50 million in cash.
Worry ifArbor reports no new loan deal backed by assets and says cash fell from the Q3 level.