Arbor Realty Trust (ABR)
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.25+1.16%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ABR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -36.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -42.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 5.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and its industry peers have been missing lately. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ABR — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation
Dated 2026-07-06
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in
Why it matters: The new securitization will help with cash flow. This helps Arbor manage its money.
Supportive ifCash flow will increase by at least $35 million from the new securitization.
Worry ifLiquidity does not improve or goes down. This shows problems in capital management.
Why it matters: The size of the servicing portfolio impacts how stable and strong revenue is.
Watch forThe servicing portfolio grows to over $36.5 billion. This shows growth in agency loan originations.
Also watch forThe servicing portfolio is below $36 billion. This hints at problems with loan originations.
Why it matters: A rise in net income is key for keeping dividend payments and investor trust.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 exceeds $1 million, showing recovery.
Worry ifNet income stays below $1 million. This shows ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: The offering could enhance liquidity and affect stock buyback plans.
Supportive ifThe company is buying back shares using money from the convertible notes.
Worry ifFailure to execute the buyback plan or a decline in share price despite the offering.
Why it matters: The dividend payout is a key focus for Arbor. A significant drop in earnings could threaten future dividends.
Worry ifQ2 earnings show net income of at least $5 million, indicating stable earnings.
Less concerning ifQ2 earnings report shows net income under $5 million. This raises worries about dividends.
Why it matters: The structured loan portfolio is a new growth focus. Growth here could signal a successful strategy shift.
Supportive ifStructured loan originations are over $800 million next quarter. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifStructured loan originations drop below $700 million. This shows a lack of progress in this area.
Why it matters: More buybacks show strong use of capital and trust in the company's value.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $150 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifTotal share repurchases remain below $150 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: The notes will finance share buybacks and could affect stock price and liquidity. Investors will monitor how this impacts the company's capital structure.
Supportive ifThe stock price increases by more than 5% within a month after the notes are issued.
Worry ifThe stock price decreases by more than 5% within a month after the notes are issued.
Why it matters: More non-performing loans mean higher credit risk. This could lead to financial trouble.
Worry ifNon-performing loans exceed 20% of total loans.
Less concerning ifNon-performing loans remain below 20% of total loans.
Why it matters: The company declared a dividend of $0.17, down from $0.43 a year ago. This signals financial health.
Worry ifDividend payout goes up to $0.43 or more. This shows earnings are recovering.
Less concerning ifDividend payout goes down again. This suggests ongoing financial problems.
Why it matters: More loan loss reserves show rising credit risk and possible future losses.
Worry ifTotal CECL allowance for loan losses reported above $163 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal CECL allowance for loan losses reported at or below $163 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More liquidity helps the company grow. It also makes its finances stronger.
Supportive ifLiquidity in Q3 is over $500 million.
Worry ifLiquidity in Q3 is less than $500 million.
Why it matters: Growth in the structured loan portfolio is key for future earnings. A decline could signal ongoing challenges in loan origination.
Worry ifThe structured loan portfolio increases from $12.00 billion in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifThe structured loan portfolio decreases from $12.00 billion in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in the buyback program shows strong confidence in the company’s value.
Supportive ifA share repurchase program was announced for over $375 million.
Worry ifNo announcement of a share repurchase program beyond the current $375 million.
Why it matters: The dividend payout reflects the company's financial health. A stable or increased dividend would signal confidence, while a cut would raise concerns.
Watch forThe dividend remains at $0.17 per share or increases in Q2 2026.
Also watch forThe dividend is cut below $0.17 per share in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in the servicing portfolio shows strong demand for agency loans and more money.
Supportive ifServicing portfolio was above $37 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifServicing portfolio stayed below $36.7 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings below this level show ongoing profit problems. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifDistributable earnings for Q3 were below $0.10 per share.
Less concerning ifDistributable earnings for Q3 were above $0.10 per share.
Why it matters: A lower dividend may show financial trouble. This can change how shareholders feel.
Worry ifThe company declares a cash dividend on common stock below $0.17 per share.
Less concerning ifThe company maintains or increases the cash dividend on common stock at $0.17 or above.
Why it matters: Slower growth may mean less demand or more competition in lending.
Worry ifStructured loan portfolio growth was below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifStructured loan portfolio growth was above 5% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $473 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,873 loss on $10,000 · 58.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.