Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Abacus Global Management, Inc. (ABX)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.75-3.31%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - LifeSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.20 → 1.20 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ABX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve adjusted net income of at least $96M in 2026 | Abacus Global Management aims for adjusted net income of $96M-$104M in 2026. | Intact | adjusted net income falls below $96 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ABX is a growth-oriented financial business with robust earnings quality, rather than a clear turnaround or deep-value case. Its multi-year view is on watch: management is progressing toward its 2026 earnings goal, but confidence has eased to medium and recent performance trails its industry cohort.
ABX trades at a durable premium, meaning the valuation is notably above peers, and the evidence labels it expensive. The premium is considered justified, with low fragility, but the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the current valuation leaves limited room for weaker execution.
Near term, adjusted net income growth has tracked management’s guidance, which was raised to $100 million to $106 million for 2026. Results are mixed: second-quarter diluted EPS was $0.07 despite adjusted EPS guidance of $0.24 to $0.26, and recent financial performance is neutral. Management execution is volatile, while risk is elevated; the next guidance update and the newly formed Manning & Napier partnership remain important to monitor.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued delivery on the 2026 earnings goal would support the multi-year thesis. Near-term sector conditions also matter: the evidence flags potential pressure if the Fed begins cutting rates, and continued strong results from MET, AFL, and PRU as a favorable signal for financial stocks.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on earnings delivery and steadier execution, with an expensive peer-relative valuation and elevated risks keeping the evidence mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company targets full-year EPS between $1.00 and $1.05. |
| Intact |
| Full-year 2026 EPS falls below $1.00 |
Diluted EPS: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.00 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20260.07 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve Q2 2026 EPS of at least $0.24 | A primary condition in Abacus Global Management, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.24 per share. | Intact | Q2 2026 EPS falls below $0.24 | Diluted EPS: $0.07 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.24 per share. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 10, 20260.07 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Successful integration and growth from Manning & Napier minority stake | A supporting condition in Abacus Global Management, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Partnership contributes positively to growth in 2026. | Intact | Partnership fails to contribute to growth or causes setbacks | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.14 → $1.20 · observed estimates
$0.33B → $0.34B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.14 | $325,850,000 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.16 | $331,383,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.14 | $335,743,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.14 | $335,743,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-11 | $1.14 | $337,183,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.16 | $331,383,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.13 | $340,205,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.16 | $331,383,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.16 | $331,383,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.16 | $331,383,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.16 | $331,383,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.16 | $331,383,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.16 | $331,383,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.16 | $331,383,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.16 | $338,552,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.16 | $338,552,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.16 | $338,552,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.16 | $338,552,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.16 | $338,552,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.16 | $338,552,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.16 | $338,552,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.16 | $338,552,917 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.17 | $337,621,786 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.17 | $337,621,786 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.17 | $337,621,786 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.17 | $337,621,786 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.17 | $337,621,786 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.17 | $337,621,786 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.17 | $337,621,786 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.17 | $337,621,786 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.17 | $337,621,786 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.17 | $337,621,786 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.17 | $337,621,786 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.17 | $336,680,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.17 | $336,889,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.17 | $336,889,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.17 | $336,889,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.17 | $336,889,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.17 | $336,889,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.17 | $336,889,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.17 | $336,889,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.17 | $336,889,286 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.20 | $337,777,857 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.