Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.97-4.80%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ACDC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain CAPEX within $155M-$185M in 2026 | A supporting condition in ProFrac Holding Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $155M-$185M. | Intact | CAPEX exceeds $185M or falls below $155M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $31.7M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $155M-$185M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202631,700,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making energy business with a cyclical setup, rather than an established durable compounder. The long-term thesis is mixed: management is meeting some operating priorities, but recent financial performance remains weak and the thesis state is watch.
ACDC is described as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear low relative to the valuation comparison. Model confidence is low, and the priced-in assessment is justified rather than fragile, so the evidence does not show that weak fundamentals and sector turbulence are fully stacked against the valuation.
Near term, revenue has risen from late 2025 into the second quarter of 2026, and capital spending remains within management’s stated guidance. Liquidity has improved, though its status is mixed; recent financial performance is still weak, and the estimated chance of a next-quarter miss is elevated. A guidance cut or further misses would weigh on the operating picture, while continued sector strength could support momentum.
Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific test is whether ACDC avoids a guidance cut and sustains revenue and operational progress. The wider energy backdrop also matters: continued strong results and guidance from SLB, BKR, and HAL would preserve a sector tailwind, while weaker results could remove it. Management’s delivery on capital spending and financial flexibility remains relevant to the multi-year thesis.
For a 1- to 3-year view, ACDC has signs of operational progress and a supportive sector backdrop, but loss-making status, weak results, and elevated near-term earnings risk leave the thesis unsettled. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “For full year 2026, ProFrac maintains its expectation that capital expenditures will be in the range of $155 million to $185 million, which includes Flotek’s current capital expenditure plan.” “Capital Expenditures and Capital Allocation Cash capital expenditures totaled $32 million in the second quarter, down from $41 million reported in first quarter 2026.”
Operating income improves toward break-even | A primary condition in ProFrac Holding Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows from -$46.4M to less negative next 4 quarters. | Intact | Operating loss does not improve or worsens beyond -$46.4M next year | Operating income: $-37.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows from -$46.4M to less negative next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-37,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 16% annually | A primary condition in ProFrac Holding Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=15.9% YoY. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 15.9% next year | Revenue growth: -0.76% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=15.9% YoY. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 2026-0.757123 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.53 → $-0.74 · observed estimates
$2.22B → $2.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.68 | $2,126,097,859 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.68 | $2,126,097,859 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.68 | $2,126,097,859 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.53 | $2,222,497,150 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.68 | $2,126,097,859 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.68 | $2,126,097,859 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.68 | $2,126,097,859 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.68 | $2,126,097,859 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.68 | $2,126,097,859 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.68 | $2,126,097,859 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.68 | $2,126,097,859 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.80 | $2,155,493,703 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.80 | $2,155,493,703 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.80 | $2,155,493,703 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.80 | $2,155,493,703 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.80 | $2,155,493,703 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.75 | $2,206,991,604 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.74 | $2,171,437,874 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.