ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$2.71-31.74%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACDC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -65.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 18.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 84.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 25 industry peers
ACDC — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-16
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Fifth Amendment to Alpine Term Loan Credit Agreement Reference is made to that certain Term Loan Credit Agreement, dated December 27, 2023, by and among Alpine Holding II, LLC (“ Al p ine Holdin g”), PF Proppant Holding, LLC (“ PFP Holdin g”), the subsidiary guarantor parties thereto (the “ Subsidiary Guarantors ”), the several lenders thereto (the “ Lenders ”) and CLMG Corp., as the agent and collateral agent (the “ A g ent ”) (as amended, restated…
Why it matters: The new credit line runs to July 2030, but ProFrac reported about $71 million still available. Less access could tighten cash options.
Worry ifA company filing shows less than $71 million left on the new ABL credit line.
Less concerning ifA company filing shows $71 million or more left on the credit line. It reports no new default.
Why it matters: A September 16 filing reports a fifth amendment to the Alpine term loan. The supplied summary gives no terms, so the full filing is key.
Watch forThe filed amendment shows lower payments, a later due date, or looser loan terms than before.
Also watch forThe filed amendment shows higher payments, an earlier due date, or tighter loan terms than before.
Why it matters: Management saw West Texas price pressure and forecast roughly flat Q3 results. A drop would add to the strain on a loss-making company.
Worry ifQ3 Proppant Production revenue is below $121 million, or Adjusted EBITDA is below $6 million. Those were Q2's levels.
Less concerning ifQ3 Proppant Production revenue and Adjusted EBITDA both match or top Q2 levels.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$288 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $787 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,638 loss on $10,000 · 66.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.