ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC)
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$5.15+0.59%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ACDC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -56.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 17.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 73.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ACDC — CEO transition
Dated 2026-08-06
CEO — Johnathan L. Wilks: Johnathan L. Wilks resigned as CEO and was succeeded by Matthew D. Wilks.
Why it matters: Keeping spending plans shows financial control. It also shows the company can invest in growth.
Watch forManagement says they plan to spend between $155 million and $185 million.
Also watch forManagement cuts spending plans to less than $155 million.
Why it matters: Staying on track with CAPEX shows disciplined spending and supports growth plans.
Supportive ifQ3 capital spending was between $155 million and $185 million.
Worry ifCapital spending was over $185 million. This may mean overspending or possible problems.
Why it matters: Higher revenue shows that operators feel good and are active.
Supportive ifSecond quarter revenue was over $450 million.
Worry ifSecond quarter revenue was under $450 million.
Why it matters: Stable or declining revenue would show that growth is inconsistent. This could hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is reported as stable or declining compared to Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth shows a significant increase compared to Q1.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$344 on $10,000 · ±3.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $770 loss on $10,000 · 7.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,521 loss on $10,000 · 55.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for stability. It shows the company is financially healthy.
Supportive ifNet cash from operations is over $23 million in Q3.
Worry ifNet cash from operations is under $23 million in Q3.
Why it matters: If revenue growth improves, it may signal a shift in the energy sector's maturity phase.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth in the energy sector exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry if3-year revenue growth remains at or below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can change a company's direction. This may affect focus and investor trust.
Watch forNew CEO Matt Wilks outlines a clear strategy that aligns with prior goals.
Also watch forNew CEO Matt Wilks does not share a clear strategy or strays from past goals.
Why it matters: Price increases in hydraulic fracturing show a tighter market. This can help profits.
Supportive ifManagement says prices for hydraulic fracturing went up in Q3.
Worry ifNo price increases were reported for hydraulic fracturing in Q3.
Why it matters: A rise in operating income may show better cost control and efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income is not as negative as -46 million in the second quarter.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse, staying more negative than -46 million.
Why it matters: Growth in Stimulation Services revenue shows strong demand. It shows the company can take advantage of market conditions.
Supportive ifQ3 Stimulation Services revenue is over $430 million. This shows growth from Q2.
Worry ifQ3 Stimulation Services revenue is below $430 million. This means demand is weak.
Why it matters: Keeping CAPEX guidance shows a focus on growth and investment. It shows trust in future operations.
Supportive ifManagement confirms CAPEX guidance remains within the $155M-$185M range during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement cuts CAPEX guidance to below $155M. This means they plan to invest less.
Why it matters: Revenue growth over $498 million shows strong operations and pricing power.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue was over $498 million. This shows strong demand and price increases.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue was below $498 million. This suggests weaker operations.
Why it matters: A tighter market means higher demand for ProFrac's services, which may increase revenue.
Supportive ifThere is more demand for better equipment and early talks for RFPs.
Worry ifNo signs of a tighter hydraulic fracturing market show weak demand.